The Toronto Raptors finished the season at 34-48, winning their last five games, making them tied for the 11th worst record in the league. A coin flip with them and the 76ers will decide who gets the 11th, and who gets the 12th.
This of course is significant, because the Thunder own their first round pick.
The pick is top-three protected, meaning if the ping-pong balls bounce in the top three for the Raptors, they get to keep the pick. Anything 4-14, the Thunder use it. If the pick lands in the top three, it then rolls over to next season where it is top-two protected.
The 11th worst record has eight combinations in the lottery, or 0.8 percent chance to win. That’s not eight percent. That’s zero point eight percent. There’s a 0.9 percent chance for the No. 2 and a 0.12 percent chance at No. 3. Between pick four and 10, there’s zero chance. There’s also a zero percent chance at No. 14.
So, if they get to use it, the Thunder are guaranteed to be picking between 11 and 13, with a 90.7 percent chance of No. 11, a 6.3 chance of No. 12 and a 0.1 percent chance of No. 13.
The Raptors were 7-2 in April after going 4-11 in March and dropping to the seventh worst record. But they finished strong and the Blazers lost their last 13.
In draft lottery history, the 11th worst record has won the lottery once (1993).
The NBA Draft Lottery is May 21.