As if the Raptors late season push wasn’t bad enough, the Thunder’s pick just took another hit.
Both the Raptors and 76ers finished with 34-48 records, which was the 11th worst record in the league, but Toronto lost a coin toss tiebreaker with Philadelphia. Meaning the Sixers have the 11th draft lottery slot, and the Raptors the 12th.
This of course is significant, because the Thunder own their first round pick.
The pick is top-three protected, meaning if the ping-pong balls bounce in the top three for the Raptors, they get to keep the pick. Anything 4-14, the Thunder use it. If the pick lands in the top three, it then rolls over to next season where it is top-two protected.
The 12th worst record has seven combinations in the lottery, or 0.7 percent chance to win. That’s not seven percent. That’s zero point seven percent. There’s a 0.8 percent chance for the No. 2 and a 0.10 percent chance at No. 3. Between pick four and 11, there’s zero chance. There’s also a zero percent chance at No. 14.
So, if they get to use it, the Thunder are guaranteed to be picking between 12 and 13, with a 93.5 percent chance of No. 12 and a 3.9 percent chance at No. 13.
The Raptors were 7-2 in April after going 4-11 in March and dropping to the seventh worst record. But they finished strong and the Blazers lost their last 13.
In draft lottery history, the 12th worst record has never won the lottery.
The NBA Draft Lottery is May 21.