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The Official Daily Thunder Big Board (v. 2.0)

by Royce Young on June 11, 2009 at 1:58 pm 27 Comments

With the first edition of the big board, Joe and I reserved the right to update and revise our opinion after the pre-draft combine results came in. And good thing we did because there was some fairly big information to come from it. Players being short, being medically red flagged or players not testing at all. There was definitely enough info in some situations to revise and re-evaluate. Remember, this is NOT a mock draft. It’s the top players according to us, with an eye towards the Thunder’s needs. Since OKC picks third, a lot of these guys will be irrelevant, but there’s always the possibility to move down or move up from No. 25 as well.

(In parenthesis is what the player was ranked in our first big board. Players 13-30 will be up tomorrow. Get excited.)

1. Blake Griffin (1) – 6′10″/ F/ Oklahoma (highlights)

Royce: Sigh… if only. If only.

2. Ricky Rubio (2) – 6′3″/ G/ DKV Joventut (highlights)

3. James Harden (3) – 6′5″/ G/ Arizona State (highlights)

Royce: I’m actually extremely close to bumping Harden to the two slot. I just think he fits with this team like Ace Ventura in parking spots. His game compliments every other Thunder starter and he would form a nice two-guard combo with Thabo Sefolosha. Really the only reason Rubio remains above Harden is the hype. I just can’t ignore it, even though I’m desperately trying.

4. Stephen Curry (5) – 6′3″ / G/ Davidson (highlights)

Royce: I’m on the wagon. I’m totally convinced he’s going to be a solid NBA player. I don’t know if he’ll dominate or if he’ll score 20 a game, but he’s going to be good. He’s one of those guys that you can just kind of sense it. He’s got an entirely polished game, is well-spoken, has great basketball lines and any question about athleticism was answered at the pre-draft combine. He’s a legit 6’3, moves extremely well side-to-side, can leap better than we thought and handles the ball extremely well. Honestly at this point, since he can play two spots, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s more of a Presti guy than Harden.

Joe: We agreed that Curry needed to be higher than we had him on our original big board. I was impressed with his numbers at the combine. He same max vertical leap as Blake Griffin and he racked the bench 10 times and he was a legitimate 6’3 1/4 in shoes. Keep Reading…

Thursday Bolts – 6.11.09

by Royce Young on June 11, 2009 at 8:15 am 31 Comments

It’s a slow news day in Thundertown. But the good news: We’re just 14 days away from the draft. That’s two weeks. thunderbolt238Remember when we were waiting for the lottery, about to go nuts with anticipation? Then we thought we’d get some clarity once the lottery was over? Well, all we know now is that every player in the draft appears to be an option for Sam Presti, except for the one we all really, really wanted. And even still, Presti does have that magic wand he can wave to maybe pull it off.

Season ticket renewals remain strong for the Thunder: “About five out of every six season ticket-holders are expected to renew their seats for the Oklahoma City Thunder’s second season. Senior vice president of ticket sales and service Brian Byrnes said Wednesday the team projects a renewal rate of about 83 or 84 percent.”

 Mike Baldwin has evidently asked a few scouts, and they say OKC should take Thabeet. I’m curious as to if these might be scouts from the Nuggets, Blazers and Timberwolves: “He changes games,” said one Eastern Conference scout. “If he doesn’t give you anything on the offensive end he can change the game defensively. There’s not a lot of guys in this draft that can come in with their presence alone who can alter the game. “I’m not saying he’s as good as Blake Griffin but I think he can alter a game defensively more than Blake Griffin. That’s why (Thabeet) is unique, especially in this draft that has so many point guards.” Another scout had a similar comment. “It’s not like he’s a stiff offensively,” the scout said. “He has a couple of signature moves. That’s something he can develop. If he does develop a little offensively, and picks up his intensity a little bit, he could become an All-Star.” Keep Reading…

The Trap and Myth of the Next

by Royce Young on June 10, 2009 at 10:01 am 40 Comments

Around draft time – or really around any time – whenever a young player’s name gets brought up, the inevitable happens. He gets compared to someone else. Oh yeah, I see a lot of Josh Smith in him … He’s got a bigger Brandon Roy written all over him … If he develops a jumper, he’s the next Dwyane Wade. It’s unavoidable.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s also not always fair to the player. Immediately, he’s got expectations placed on him. If the young prospect doesn’t at least reach the level of the player he’s being compared to, it’s almost like he’s failed. When in reality, he didn’t ask for the comparisons. He didn’t ask for the expectations.

FreeDarko’s Macrophenomenal Pro Basketball Almanac has a chapter titled “The Myth of the Next” where they look at who players were compared to early on in their career.

Some front offices rely on the hunches of grizzled intuitives, others on mountains of data. At times, out of weakness or frustration, these brave men and women turn toward a false idol: the Myth of the Next. Based, some say, on the Stoic notion of Eternal Return, the principal states that everything that has happened before in the NBA must happen again, and soon; in each year’s crop of fresh meat, they see reflected images of last season’s All-Star rosters. It’s effect is insidious, as what begins as an offhand comparison becomes hype, which is then all too easily transformed into regrettable action. Hopefully these recent examples can serve as a cautionary tale for organizations everywhere.

Brilliant stuff. A very recent and poignant example of an offhand comparison becoming snowballed hype can be found in Ricky Rubio and his Pete Maravich link. Some examples FreeDarko uses:

Myth of the Next Dirk Nowitzki – Pau Gasol, Darko Milicic, Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Myth of the Next Dwyane Wade – Brandon Roy, Rodney Stuckey, Randy Foye
Myth of the Next Magic Johnson – Penny Hardaway, Jalen Rose, Toni Kukoc
Myth of the Next Tracy McGrady – J.R. Smith, Dorell Wright, Gerald Green

There’s many more, but the point rings true – just because a player resembles another’s skillset and abilities, doesn’t mean he will turn out to be that same guy. And you have to be very careful tagging someone that way or you could end up looking like Dean Blevins on painkillers. In other words, stupid. Keep Reading…

Wednesday Bolts – 6.10.09

by Royce Young on June 10, 2009 at 8:00 am 22 Comments

Update: Chad Ford with a new mock draft: thunderbolt237“The Thunder have been their typical quiet selves. GM Sam Presti has told a number of agents that he is interested in their players, but it has been difficult to ascertain the direction toward which they are leaning. We continue to hear that the Thunder have expressed interest in Rubio, Thabeet, James Harden, Jordan Hill and Stephen Curry. Rubio likely will make a visit to OKC sometime before the draft, but major questions exist about how he would fit there. The team sees Russell Westbrook as its point guard of the future and isn’t sure how he would fare without the ball in his hands. Maybe more importantly, Presti is an opportunist. If he can get a couple of good assets in return for the No. 3 pick, he won’t be afraid to pull the trigger. But if he doesn’t, and if Rubio is off the board, the team will have to make a tough decision. Thabeet would give the Thunder the shot-blocking they desperately need. Harden would give them the savvy of a veteran. Curry would give them shooting. Hill would give them rebounding and energy. Oklahoma City could use all those things, but our guess is that it will settle on Harden.”

Now this is a mock draft: “OKC – James Harden – I normally respect Sam Presti and his giant pulsating brain, but he will make the greatest mistake of his career by drafting Harden. Sure, shooting guard is a glaring need for an otherwise promising team, but I heard from a guy who knows a guy who dated a girl who read on a blog that Harden is such a bad athlete that he entered a 3 km race with a rabbit and only won because the rabbit was so confident of winning that he decided to take a nap midway through the course. Further, I hear that the slothful James Harden has not legs but a gelatinous mass of flesh not unlike a slug that leaves a trail of greasy discharge when he runs the court on a fast break.” I sense sarcarm…

Sam Young could slip simply because of his age. I hope he slips right to No. 25, because I absolutely love his game: “A two time all-Big East selection, Young possesses a polished all around game with a knack for performing best in his team’s biggest games. The small forward averaged 23.5 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, leading the team to the Elite Eight. Despite all of these accomplishments, however, Young will likely slip out of the draft lottery and into the latter part of the first round largely because of his age. At 24, Young is older than even most of his classmates which, by NBA Draft standards, is ancient. He might as well be Abe Vigoda. Few players in this draft have the combination of skills, athleticism and experience that Young has yet he still isn’t considered a top prospect in this draft.” Keep Reading…

Draft prospects by the numbers

by Royce Young on June 9, 2009 at 11:58 am 12 Comments

Bret of Hoopinon has put together an extensive spreadsheet of statistics for this year’s draft prospect crop. It’s really something else. He’s got sortable stats on 92 prospects. So yeah, it’s extensive. (Google docs are really incredible by the way. You can even chat with others viewing the spreadsheet. Safe to say, when I realized this, my mind was blown. Also, to sort the stats, go to “view” and click “list view.” Then click each category to sort just like you would on a video game.)

Bret says to keep this in mind though:

Possessions are estimated (in most cases) from end of season cumulative stats so there’s a decent margin for error (Usage rates ran high — 12 to 18% higher than at kenpom.com though he doesn’t specify which usage formula he uses — so I deleted that column) and stats may not equal a player’s official season totals as I subtracted (both from team and player) any stats compiled against non-Division 1 competition. Plus, I’d be shocked if there’s not a data entry error or five in there somewhere.

There’s so much info there to digest, I feel like I’d need to commit three or four days to comprehend it all. What’s crazy, is that Sam Presti has a guy doing precisely that, all season long. Crunching numbers, understanding key stats and using them to help make informed decisions. There’s great stuff like free throw rate, eFG%, true shooting percentage, assist per 100 possessions and on and on. All the advanced stats some love so much, but for all these prospects.

picture-3

I definitely don’t think stats like this are the end all, be all, but they are useful. I more lean to how good of a basketball player a guy is based on what I see, rather than what some numbers say. But you really need to use the two together to be a well-rounded basketball person. Interesting to see that James Harden’s true shooting percentage is actually higher than Steph Curry’s. Ty Lawson was tops on the list (and in the country last year) in assists per 100 possessions.

Tyreke Evans was last (or first, depending on perspective) in turnovers per 100 with Curry and Harden close behind. Lawson was 23rd in that category, which is rare because the top 20 is mostly just big men and others that didn’t handle the ball a lot. One other thing that caught my attention was how much Curry got to the free throw line. When you’re as good a shooter as he is, getting to the line is as free of points as you can get.

Tuesday Bolts – 6.9.09

by Royce Young on June 9, 2009 at 8:07 am 50 Comments

Chad Ford reports that Ricky Rubio has asked to terminate his contract with DKV Joventut: “Spanish teenager Ricky thunderbolt236Rubio, projected as a top-five pick in the NBA draft, took the first step in clearing his way toward the NBA on Monday when he notified his team, DKV Joventut, that he wants to terminate his contract. Rubio is asking out of his deal, and also is challenging a 4.75 million Euro (approximately $6.6 million) buyout, which climbs to 5.75 million Euros after June 30. Rubio made 70,000 Euros last season (about $97,000) and is scheduled to make 125,000 Euros next season (about $175,000).”

He hasn’t yet, but Rubio plans to sue if negotiations can’t be reached: “Barcelona newspaper La Vanguardia reported in Sunday’s edition that Rubio’s camp, led by European agent German Gonzalez but no doubt pushed by U.S. agent Dan Fegan, plans to sue Joventut on grounds the buy-out is unreasonable commensurate to the player’s salary. DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony, attending Reebok Eurocamp in Italy, called the rumor accurate on Monday, and noted that it was a major topic of discussion between NBA and European scouts and executive over the weekend in Treviso.”

Here’s a trade that might make you chuckle: “Blazers Trade to Oklahoma City – Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake, Martell Webster; Blazers Receive from Oklahoma City – Jeff Green, Nick Collison, Earl Watson, #3 pick in 2009 draft.” The problem with people coming up with trades for their teams is that we all think far too highly of our own players. On both sides. Keep Reading…

Monday Bolts – 6.8.09

by Royce Young on June 8, 2009 at 7:46 am 51 Comments

Uh oh – the Knicks have an eye for The Polish Hammer as well: “Though the Knicks likely will take a combo-type guard thunderbolt235in the June 25 NBA Draft, Knicks team president Donnie Walsh will eye a center with his $5 million mid-level exception during free agency, and Orlando’s 7-foot backup Marcin Gortat is very high on his list, The Post has learned.”

Darnell Mayberry looks at how each potential draft pick fits in with the Thunder: “Harden has the potential to compete for the starting shooting guard spot from Day 1 because of his instincts for the game and ability to score. He is almost the exact opposite of current starter Thabo Sefolosha, whose impact begins on the defensive end and is a work-in-progress offensively. There are questions about whether Harden will be able to defend in the NBA. It remains to be seen if those questions have any merit, but we do know Harden would be protected on the wing with the Thunder thanks to willing defenders Sefolosha, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook.” He also gave Harden a 70 percent chance of being here, Thabeet 30 and Rubio 50.

A lawsuit could be imminent for Ricky Rubio: “Plenty of chatter about the Ricky Rubio situation, with the most interesting commentary coming from the many members of the Spanish basketball industry, which are out here in full force. The news this morning about a lawsuit being planned by Rubio’s camp is apparently very true, and there was plenty of spirited discussion regarding whether his exorbitant buyout relative to his proportional contract will hold up in a Spanish court. Some cited the fact that similar cases in soccer (for example in England) had sided in favor of the players in the past, while others mentioned that Rubio’s willing acceptance of a large pay raise a few months back had nullified his ability to dispute the validity of the deal. The main questions here are-how long will such a case take to play out? How much does Joventut need the money for this upcoming season? And how much will the negative publicity from such a bombastic story hurt them down the road in terms of signing young players? Can all this be resolved in satisfactory fashion in time for the draft? This move likely ends any chance Rubio has of pulling his name out of the draft, as the damage caused by such a lawsuit would likely be too great of a rift to heal this upcoming summer.”

Keep Reading…

How to contend pt.2

by Joe on June 7, 2009 at 8:54 am 17 Comments

Part 1 is here.

The idea in part 1 was that in order to become an upper crust team, a team needed to field a group of scorers that consisted of either two class Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed). A class A scorer is a player who has his points per shot in the 1.3 range and above. A class B scorer is between 1.2 and 1.29. And both of these have to include shooting the ball around 12 times per game or above.

This of course doesn’t take into account defense, but as a starting point, the team still has to be able to outscore the opponent, and the model works on a very basic level. It speaks to efficient offense, something the Thunder lack.

The 06-07 Spurs were comprised of three A level scorers:
Duncan: 1.41 pps-14 fga/gm
Parker: 1.30 pps-14.2 fga/gm
Ginobli: 1.44 pps-11.4 fga/gm. Keep Reading…

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