ESPN logoTrueHoop Network
An ESPN Affiliate

Daily Thunder.com

  • Home
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Contact
  • Team
    • Salaries
    • Roster
    • Schedule & Events
  • Commenting Guidelines

Draft prospects by the numbers

by Royce Young on June 9, 2009 at 11:58 am 12 Comments

Bret of Hoopinon has put together an extensive spreadsheet of statistics for this year’s draft prospect crop. It’s really something else. He’s got sortable stats on 92 prospects. So yeah, it’s extensive. (Google docs are really incredible by the way. You can even chat with others viewing the spreadsheet. Safe to say, when I realized this, my mind was blown. Also, to sort the stats, go to “view” and click “list view.” Then click each category to sort just like you would on a video game.)

Bret says to keep this in mind though:

Possessions are estimated (in most cases) from end of season cumulative stats so there’s a decent margin for error (Usage rates ran high — 12 to 18% higher than at kenpom.com though he doesn’t specify which usage formula he uses — so I deleted that column) and stats may not equal a player’s official season totals as I subtracted (both from team and player) any stats compiled against non-Division 1 competition. Plus, I’d be shocked if there’s not a data entry error or five in there somewhere.

There’s so much info there to digest, I feel like I’d need to commit three or four days to comprehend it all. What’s crazy, is that Sam Presti has a guy doing precisely that, all season long. Crunching numbers, understanding key stats and using them to help make informed decisions. There’s great stuff like free throw rate, eFG%, true shooting percentage, assist per 100 possessions and on and on. All the advanced stats some love so much, but for all these prospects.

picture-3

I definitely don’t think stats like this are the end all, be all, but they are useful. I more lean to how good of a basketball player a guy is based on what I see, rather than what some numbers say. But you really need to use the two together to be a well-rounded basketball person. Interesting to see that James Harden’s true shooting percentage is actually higher than Steph Curry’s. Ty Lawson was tops on the list (and in the country last year) in assists per 100 possessions.

Tyreke Evans was last (or first, depending on perspective) in turnovers per 100 with Curry and Harden close behind. Lawson was 23rd in that category, which is rare because the top 20 is mostly just big men and others that didn’t handle the ball a lot. One other thing that caught my attention was how much Curry got to the free throw line. When you’re as good a shooter as he is, getting to the line is as free of points as you can get.

Tuesday Bolts – 6.9.09

by Royce Young on June 9, 2009 at 8:07 am 50 Comments

Chad Ford reports that Ricky Rubio has asked to terminate his contract with DKV Joventut: “Spanish teenager Ricky thunderbolt236Rubio, projected as a top-five pick in the NBA draft, took the first step in clearing his way toward the NBA on Monday when he notified his team, DKV Joventut, that he wants to terminate his contract. Rubio is asking out of his deal, and also is challenging a 4.75 million Euro (approximately $6.6 million) buyout, which climbs to 5.75 million Euros after June 30. Rubio made 70,000 Euros last season (about $97,000) and is scheduled to make 125,000 Euros next season (about $175,000).”

He hasn’t yet, but Rubio plans to sue if negotiations can’t be reached: “Barcelona newspaper La Vanguardia reported in Sunday’s edition that Rubio’s camp, led by European agent German Gonzalez but no doubt pushed by U.S. agent Dan Fegan, plans to sue Joventut on grounds the buy-out is unreasonable commensurate to the player’s salary. DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony, attending Reebok Eurocamp in Italy, called the rumor accurate on Monday, and noted that it was a major topic of discussion between NBA and European scouts and executive over the weekend in Treviso.”

Here’s a trade that might make you chuckle: “Blazers Trade to Oklahoma City – Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake, Martell Webster; Blazers Receive from Oklahoma City – Jeff Green, Nick Collison, Earl Watson, #3 pick in 2009 draft.” The problem with people coming up with trades for their teams is that we all think far too highly of our own players. On both sides. Keep Reading…

Monday Bolts – 6.8.09

by Royce Young on June 8, 2009 at 7:46 am 51 Comments

Uh oh – the Knicks have an eye for The Polish Hammer as well: “Though the Knicks likely will take a combo-type guard thunderbolt235in the June 25 NBA Draft, Knicks team president Donnie Walsh will eye a center with his $5 million mid-level exception during free agency, and Orlando’s 7-foot backup Marcin Gortat is very high on his list, The Post has learned.”

Darnell Mayberry looks at how each potential draft pick fits in with the Thunder: “Harden has the potential to compete for the starting shooting guard spot from Day 1 because of his instincts for the game and ability to score. He is almost the exact opposite of current starter Thabo Sefolosha, whose impact begins on the defensive end and is a work-in-progress offensively. There are questions about whether Harden will be able to defend in the NBA. It remains to be seen if those questions have any merit, but we do know Harden would be protected on the wing with the Thunder thanks to willing defenders Sefolosha, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook.” He also gave Harden a 70 percent chance of being here, Thabeet 30 and Rubio 50.

A lawsuit could be imminent for Ricky Rubio: “Plenty of chatter about the Ricky Rubio situation, with the most interesting commentary coming from the many members of the Spanish basketball industry, which are out here in full force. The news this morning about a lawsuit being planned by Rubio’s camp is apparently very true, and there was plenty of spirited discussion regarding whether his exorbitant buyout relative to his proportional contract will hold up in a Spanish court. Some cited the fact that similar cases in soccer (for example in England) had sided in favor of the players in the past, while others mentioned that Rubio’s willing acceptance of a large pay raise a few months back had nullified his ability to dispute the validity of the deal. The main questions here are-how long will such a case take to play out? How much does Joventut need the money for this upcoming season? And how much will the negative publicity from such a bombastic story hurt them down the road in terms of signing young players? Can all this be resolved in satisfactory fashion in time for the draft? This move likely ends any chance Rubio has of pulling his name out of the draft, as the damage caused by such a lawsuit would likely be too great of a rift to heal this upcoming summer.”

Keep Reading…

How to contend pt.2

by Joe on June 7, 2009 at 8:54 am 17 Comments

Part 1 is here.

The idea in part 1 was that in order to become an upper crust team, a team needed to field a group of scorers that consisted of either two class Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed). A class A scorer is a player who has his points per shot in the 1.3 range and above. A class B scorer is between 1.2 and 1.29. And both of these have to include shooting the ball around 12 times per game or above.

This of course doesn’t take into account defense, but as a starting point, the team still has to be able to outscore the opponent, and the model works on a very basic level. It speaks to efficient offense, something the Thunder lack.

The 06-07 Spurs were comprised of three A level scorers:
Duncan: 1.41 pps-14 fga/gm
Parker: 1.30 pps-14.2 fga/gm
Ginobli: 1.44 pps-11.4 fga/gm. Keep Reading…

How the Thunder can contend for a title

by Joe on June 6, 2009 at 4:55 pm 22 Comments

Ok, stop laughing. I am not talking about next year, but about a long term approach to team building that puts the Thunder into the upper crust of NBA teams competing for the golden trophy. The concept is very simplistic, but in some regards that’s the beauty of it. Keep it simple right? Easy to understand is always better than complex for me.

The idea is first that we have to put players on the team that can get it done. This isn’t as easy as it might seem. There is a lot to team building. You have to get pieces that fit, that compliment each other, that produce as a team, and that can grow together to form a multi-year run at the title. Few teams have been able to “buy” a championship, but it has been done. Sam Presti hasn’t shown any inclination to build a team through a series of big time free agent signings or trades, but he isn’t beyond trying to pluck that special player that is the missing ingredient (Tyson Chandler…). So I am concentrating on players that are in the nucleus now, and the upcoming draft.

I borrowed the concept from a paragraph or two in a blog post over at Hornets 24/7. The way the author (Ryan Schwan) suggests nearly every team that wins a championship has their team structured is around the concept of “A” and “B” scorers (here with reference to the Hornet’s roster):

“it seems to me that there are two ways to contend for a title in the NBA: Field a team with two Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed) The Hornets are currently built around a Class A scorer(Paul) and one Class B scorer(West), and one scorer(Peja) who they hoped would be Class B, but has fallen to Class C. To me, they either need to find another class B scorer on the cheap or try and upgrade their Class B scorer to a Class A one. The question is, however, who do I classify as a Class A or Class B Scorer? Class A are those players who are not only efficient scorers(points per shot of 1.3 or better) but whom retain that efficiency while taking around a dozen shots or more. Class B are those scorers who average between 1.2 and 1.3 points per shot, while taking the same number of shots per game.”

I crunched some of the numbers from recent successful teams and it’s a decent starting point for team success.

Keep Reading…

Saturday Morning Cartoons: Scott Brooks goes coast-to-coast

by Royce Young on June 6, 2009 at 12:34 am 17 Comments

Remember when Scott Brooks played basketball? I really don’t, seeing as I was like six at the time of this clip. I do vaguely remember him playing for Rockets during both of their title runs, but I more remember Sam Cassell’s alien skull over anything else off that team. And how Robert Horry looked just like the Fresh Prince. And oh yeah, Otis Thorpe. What an old-sounding name. But I’ve always heard about what a scrapper Brooks was and how he kind of was to basketball what David Eckstein is to baseball. And this clip really shows it. He looks like a little kid when he breaks away for a fast break layup. Legs churning, that blonde mop on fire and dang determined to put the ball in the basket. I like having a coach that played with such a hard-nosed style. Makes me confident that he can pass that sort of mentality on to other players.

Season retrospective: So was Durant a team killer?

by Royce Young on June 5, 2009 at 1:17 pm 19 Comments

Oklahoma City played its best stretch with its star player sidelined with a bum ankle. Therefore, media folks had to bring up the inevitable “Is the Thunder better off without Durant?” questions and really, people are still talking about it. Reader J.G. emailed in and put all of that to bed.

“You’re joking, right?” is what my first response would be to people who ask this question but after his injury and the Thunder’s team success in his absence, a lot of individuals posed this question and at first glance, it may have not seemed all that ridiculous. However on second glance, this notion is clearly based off of the misconception that the 5 of 6 game stretch that the Thunder went on while Durant (and Green for a bit) was hurt was their best of the season statistically.

Well it turns out that stretch was not the Thunder’s best stretch of wins. Not even close. And here’s why:

The stretch without Durant included wins against Memphis (5th worst record), Washington (2nd worst record), Sacramento (1st worst record) and two sixth seeded playoff teams, Dallas and Philadelphia. When you tack on the fact that the Thunder were actually favored in two of those games that they were supposed to have won, then you can really see why that stretch meant very little in terms of an “impressive streak.”

The Thunder’s victories came against teams with a 20.7% Winning Percentage, a 23.2% Winning Percentage, a 29.3% Winning Percentage, a 50% Winning Percentage and a 61% Winning Percentage. So their opponent’s average Winning Percentage during the stretch without Durant (and Green for a time) was 36.8%, hardly something to celebrate and even less indicative of one player’s overall impact, destructive or constructive.

The best stretch the Thunder ACTUALLY had in terms of “quality of opponent” and “wins produced” was when they went 5 of 7 in January, beating Utah, Detroit, Golden State, New Jersey and Memphis. The Thunder were not favorites in ANY of these games and went up against much harder competition. Keep Reading…

Friday Bolts – 6.5.09

by Royce Young on June 5, 2009 at 7:48 am 33 Comments

DeJuan Blair is among a couple players set to work out for OKC next: “Former Pittsburgh forward DeJuan Blair will be thunderbolt234among six prospects who will participate in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s next NBA draft workout. Blair was named the co-Big East player of the year with Connecticut’s Hasheem Thabeet, another prospect in this year’s draft. Other players participating in Friday’s workout will be guard Ben Woodside from North Dakota State, forward Jeff Adrien from Connecticut, center B.J. Mullens from Ohio State and guard Curtis Jerrells and forward Kevin Rogers, who are both from Baylor.” B.J. Mullens, eh? Well then, the Thunder must be high on him!

A mock draft: “Oklahoma City Thunder – Ricky Rubio, 6-3/185, PG, Spain – The most intriguing prospect of this year’s draft. He has the floor presence, swagger and haircut of a young Pete Maravich. But he doesn’t have the Pistol’s jump shot. Rubio more than held his own against the “Redeem Team” playing for Spain in the 2008 Olympics. His upside will be too great for the Thunder to pass up with this pick. They’ll move Russell Westbrook off the ball to make room for Rubio. You could do worse than a young nucleus of Rubio, Westbrook, Jeff Green and Kevin Durant (average age: 20).”

Earl Watson has changed agents: “Earl Watson has changed sports agencies, leaving agent Dan Fegan and BEST Basketball to join Bill Duffy at BDA Sports Management. Watson grew frustrated last season with his situation as a member of the 23-win Thunder and was believed to be disappointed in his agent’s handling of the matter. Watson never publicly said he desired to be traded but did say at the end of the season that he doesn’t expect to return. “You never know, this business is incredible,” Watson said in April. “But going into the last year of my deal, business-wise you become an attractive contract. And for the last month I haven’t been playing. So why would I be here?” Watson, who turns 30 on June 12, is owed $6.6 million next season.”

Ricky Rubio has not scheduled a workout with the Grizzlies. Duhn, duhn, duhnnn: “The Grizzlies have not scheduled a workout/meeting in Memphis with 18-year-old Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio.A team insider said the Griz were unaware of Rubio’s exact plans – whether he would work out for any NBA team or simply arrive in the U.S. for the draft. Long-time NBA writer and good friend, Ailene Voisin of the Sacramento Bee, wrote in her blog that sources say Rubio “is suddenly amenable to participating in interviews and individual workouts with a select number of teams …Rubio’s agent, Dan Fegan, is limiting the visits to the teams with draft picks 2-4.” Keep Reading…

  • « Previous
  • 1
  • …
  • 447
  • 448
  • 449
  • 450
  • 451
  • …
  • 511
  • Next »
Back to Top

Headlines

  • VP Biden called Durant to thank him for donation
  • KD named All-NBA first team, Westbrook second team
  • Perk donates $25,000 to help build shelters in schools
  • Report: Mo Cheeks to interview with the Pistons
  • Thunder land the 12th pick in the 2013 draft
  • Thunder donate $1 million to aid with disaster relief
  • Kevin Durant donates $1 million to disaster relief
Daily Thunder
  • Home
  • About
  • Advertise
  • Contact

Copyright © 2008-2012 DailyThunder.com
Designed by iThemes Creative & Hosted by Site5