Reading some of my favorite basketball blogs this morning I came across this little snippet in Ballerblogger where the author references John Hollingers per diem piece from Friday. It’s a great read, I highly recommend it. I am not a big Hollinger devotee, but he is great at noticing statistical trends. In the Friday Per diem article, Hollinger makes the connection between teams that attempt a lot of three pointers, and teams that don’t, and how they respectively shake out in wins and losses.
“…the reason teams shoot more often from out there (and perhaps employ players who do it better) is a simple one: It works. In fact, few stats correlate better with winning than 3-point attempts. If you tell me only how many 3-pointers a team has chucked up this season and provide no other information, I can tell you whether it is a winning team and be right eight times out of 10.”
“Check this out: The teams in the top 10 in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt have a combined winning percentage of .593 … and those in the bottom 10 have a combined winning percentage of .400.
That’s no accident. Three-point attempts have correlated highly with winning for the past several years.
Nine of the top 10 teams in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt also are above the league average in offensive efficiency, the lone exception being 20th-place Indiana. Similarly, only two teams , Utah and Golden State, have had below-average rates of 3-point attempts and still rank in the league’s upper half in offensive efficiency.”
Hollinger has a point there. Being as how the Thunder are dead last in three point attempts per game in the NBA, and also pretty close to the bottom of the win/loss column as well I decided to put Hollinger’s hypothesis to the test.
Thunder field goal shooting:
fgm/gm=36.7 (combined 2fgm+3fgm)
Points per shot (PPS) from fg=.947 (combined 2fg+3fg)
NBA league average Points per shot=.998 Keep Reading…