The battle for fourth: Breaking down the schedules
The Western Conference playoff race is tight. Like super-tight. Like tight like Gabourey Sidibe walking through an average-sized doorway. Right now, 2.5 games separate fourth place from eighth place. There are four winning streaks going in the top eight of the West and every team is playing above .500 its last 10 games.
And you want to finish fourth because that means you get to play on your home floor for your first game of the postseason. That’s huge, especially to a young team like the Thunder. But a lot of what could decide it won’t necessarily be who’s hot at the right time, but the upcoming schedules for the teams in contention. I’m going to assume the top three in the West will go the Lakers, Dallas and Denver in some order, leaving Utah, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, San Antonio and Portland to battle it out for fourth. So who has the easiest path to that fourth spot? Let’s look:
UTAH JAZZ
Current record: 42-24 (half game ahead of OKC)
Number of games left: 16
Number of home games: 8
Number of road games: 8
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 6
Number of games against current playoff teams: 6
Number of back-to-backs left: 4
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at Utah)
Tiebreaker: OKC (3-0 vs. Jazz)
Schedule Difficulty Rank (of the teams in consideration): 5
Utah definitely has the lightest schedule of the teams battling for fourth. The Jazz have an even amount of road and home games, plus get Oklahoma City at home. Out of their remaining 16 games, they only play six .500 or better teams and just have four back-to-backs. It all sets up for a favorable schedule for the Jazz.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Current record: 41-24 (half game back of Utah)
Number of games left: 17
Number of home games: 8
Number of road games: 9
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 12
Number of games against current playoff teams: 11
Number of back-to-backs left: 5
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 2
The Thunder have a tough schedule, especially because a lot of the games they play against sub-.500 teams are on the road. For instance, this week the Thunder goes to Toronto and Indiana, both teams under .500, but both teams decent at home. Plus OKC has a healthy number of back-to-backs left. Realistically, I think in the final 17, OKC could go 10-7, but also could very easily got 8-9 or maybe worse. It’s a tough finish but the good news is that the Thunder plays every team around it during the finishing stretch. So if there’s ground to be made up, at least the Thunder will have destiny in their hands for the most part instead of relying on someone else.
PHOENIX SUNS
Current record: 41-26 (one game back of OKC)
Number of games left: 15
Number of home games: 7
Number of road games: 8
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 8
Number of games against current playoff teams: 7
Number of back-to-backs left: 4
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at OKC)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-1 vs. PHX)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 3
The Suns don’t have it easy with eight road games and eight of their final 15 being against quality opponents. And the remaining game against the Thunder is in the Ford Center.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Current record: 39-25 (1.5 games back of OKC)
Number of games left: 18
Number of home games: 7
Number of road games: 11
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 14
Number of games against current playoff teams: 12
Number of back-to-backs left: 5
Games against Oklahoma City left: 1 (at OKC)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-2 vs. SA)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 1
No question in my mind, the Spurs have the toughest remaining schedule. They play the most games yet, plus have 11 of their final 18 on the road with a stunning 14 of them coming against .500 clubs. There’s a real chance for San Antonio to slip to eighth here. And the icing on the cake is that the game left against OKC is at the Ford Center.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Current record: 41-28 (two games back of OKC)
Number of games left: 13
Number of home games: 6
Number of road games: 7
Number of games against plus-.500 teams: 7
Number of games against current playoff teams: 7
Number of back-to-backs left: 2
Games against Oklahoma City left: 2 (one in OKC, one in Portland)
Tiebreaker: Not decided yet (1-1 vs. PDX)
Schedule Difficulty Rank: 4
The Blazers have the fewest games remaining, but play a solid number against playoff caliber teams. This is the only opponent OKC plays twice and with the season series split at 1-1, these will be big games. Most don’t realize that Portland is just two games back of the Thunder.
I hate to guess, but if I were, I’d say 53 wins would lock away the fourth seed in the West. That would mean the Thunder would need to go 12-5 to get there. Is that possible? Definitely. But against this schedule, it could be tough. To reach 50 wins, the Thunder would need to go 9-8, which is definitely achievable. But I don’t know if that record would get the fourth seed. This will be an extremely competitive finish and like I said, the Thunder has a chance at the tiebreaker against everyone and also a chance to catch up or distance themselves against everyone.
