Thunder need playoff experience more than a lottery pick

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To quote the late, great Joan Rivers… “can we talk?”

Over the last few weeks I’ve heard variations of “we’re not winning a title this year so why bother with the playoffs” or “I’d rather have a lottery pick than get swept in the first round by Golden State.”

Admittedly, this line of thinking frustrates me like people who use the word “supposebly”.

Let’s step through this, shall we?

Assuming the Thunder do make the postseason, and it looks like that might not be decided until the very end of the season at this point, they’re absolutely playing like a team preparing to be mowed down by a Warriors team that could be one for the ages.* The offense is perfectly capable of producing points, even sans Kevin Durant and roughly 18 other injured players. But the defense has been so bad that I can’t conjure up a metaphor that wouldn’t be disturbing to readers.

* The Warriors have posted a double-figure Margin of Victory and Simple Rating System this season, a feat that’s happened only three times since the three point line was introduced in 1979: the 1991-92 Bulls, the 1995-96 Bulls, and the 1996-97 Bulls. Those teams won stuff.

If the Thunder slips out of the playoffs, they’re looking at the 14th pick in the draft. Sure, they have a 0.7 percent chance of getting the third pick or better. That might be better odds than beating the Warriors in a seven game series as currently constituted. But regardless, it’d be the 14th overall pick barring an NBA Draft Lottery miracle that hasn’t been seen since Orlando won the 1993 lottery. If the Thunder makes the playoffs, they could hold onto their pick if it’s the 18th selection or better. If it’s 19th or worse, it goes to Philadelphia (who acquired the pick via Denver and Cleveland).

Assuming they get to keep their selection, maybe the Thunder could pick up a really good player out of this draft. Maybe it could be used in a package to solidify another position. It’s all pretty speculative and open to interpretation. Fans still see the draft as a place where you only get the 18th best player if you have the 18th overall pick, but it doesn’t always work that way. Look no further than the Thunder’s recent draft history. They took Russell Westbrook fourth overall when many mock drafts had him a few spots lower. They took Mitch McGary and absorbed hits from critics who said they overdrafted him. Hell, the Toronto Raptors took Bruno Caboclo a pick before McGary last season, and most observers thought he was a second round pick at best. The Thunder is much more concerned with fit and ability rather than simply ability.

In other words, if Sam Presti gets to make a first round pick this season, it won’t make much of a difference whether he’s picking 14th or 18th. And if there are no players available that he likes, he’d probably be more inclined to trade away the selection than grab the proverbial “next best player available.” And no, the 14th pick isn’t that much more valuable than the 18th if you’re thinking of making a trade.

And even if the Thunder get to keep their pick and make a selection, the chances aren’t real good that said player will impact the team immediately. Sure, the so-called “perfect” swingman could fall into their lap and they could get a productive rookie season out of him. Most likely, said player would either spend most of his time north of Reno Avenue with the Oklahoma City Blue. Or said player could be a European prospect and stashed overseas. And maybe, if the planets and stars align, the player is a productive rotation player down the road.

More to the point: fans seem to expect that the Thunder would land an immediate impact player if they’d just fold up the tent and fall into the lottery. It’s just not that likely.

What would benefit the Thunder more in the long run? Playoff experience. Not for Russell Westbrook or Serge Ibaka, who have war chests full of playoff moments. Enes Kanter has logged 43 minutes in four career playoff games, all as a 19-year old rookie, and three of those games were lopsided losses to the Spurs. This is Anthony Morrow’s seventh NBA season and he’s yet to play in a playoff game. Kyle Singler hasn’t played in a post season game since 2012… with Real Madrid. That is to say, he hasn’t played in a single NBA playoff game. Neither has Dion Waiters. Neither has Mitch McGary. Andre Roberson logged nine minutes in two postseason games last year, both in mop-up duty against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals.

All of the players I mentioned above figure into the Thunder’s long-term plans. All would greatly benefit, if only for four or five games (asking for more seems ignorantly optimistic), from playing significant minutes in playoff conditions. All need to be wired to understand that for the Thunder, the season never ends mid-April. All need to be programmed to prepare for two more months of basketball after the regular season ends. All need a taste of what the playoff atmosphere is like in raucous Oracle Arena and rowdy Chesapeake Energy Arena. All need to get that feeling of wanting that experience over and over. It’s like telling other people about how awesome it is to be a parent. Until you experience it yourself, you just wouldn’t understand.

Some fans are afraid of being the fan of a team that could get annihilated in four games. To those fans, I say suck it up, buttercup. Not every season ends with downtown parades. Consider the Spurs, who have lost in the first round on three occasions in the Tim Duncan era (twice legitimately due to injuries). Or consider the fact that the Mavericks have lost six times in the first round in the Dirk Nowitzki era, and missed the playoffs entirely just two seasons ago. Laker fans love titles, but had to slog through one non-playoff season and two other first round exits in the mid-2000s. They were swept by the Mavericks in the last playoff series Phil Jackson coached. Playoff losses happen. And they’re not a terrible thing. The sting of an early exit just might piss off Westbrook and holy hell what would that look like?

And sure, there’s always a chance of a series-tilting injury that opens the door for this Thunder team to advance in the postseason, but let’s hope that doesn’t happen. I’m done with injuries. I want them gone. All of them. I want no more seasons marred with injuries to players of great significance.

This season has been one of great frustration for Thunder players, staff, and fans. Frustration leads to blurting out things that aren’t well-thought out. Think long term. I know for a fact that the Thunder front office is. Might as well join in.