Victor Oladipo’s fit with the Thunder
Sam Presti finally upgraded the position people have been begging him to for years: the shooting guard. It came with the hefty price of dealing away Serge Ibaka, but this fills a clear hole for the Thunder. Among all the shooting guard rotations in the league, OKC ranked last in points per chance, 21st in open+ field goal percentage, 28th in points per shot, and last in assist+ per 100 chances. That’s bad. The good news is Victor Oladipo helps in all those areas, while also making a positive impact on the defensive end. The Thunder shooting guard rotation ranked seventh in points against per shot last season and there is no reason they can’t repeat or improve on that.
Most OKC fans have watched Oladipo highlights and the 2 games he went off against the Thunder this season, but just how much of an upgrade is he over the current crop of shooting guards? Let’s take a look.
First here is a chart of the offensive comparisons (all stats provided by Vantage Sports):
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Oladipo’s offensive versatility is something special. He is an elite passer for a shooting guard. He is in the top 10 among shooting guards in both True Facilitation (passes leading to open shots) and assist+ per 100 chances. This is something the Thunder really struggled with from that position, but excelled elsewhere. The Thunder ranked seventh overall in True Facilitation. With the addition of Oladipo, they should easily be one of the best teams at finding open shots.
Oladipo has great on ball capabilities in creating his own shot and get to the rim, but what is really impressive is his off ball abilities. His open+ field goal percentage is elite, fifth among all shooting guards, better than likes of Klay Thompson and James Harden. He will be hilariously open in OKC with the attention Durant and Westbrook get. Oladipo’s Cut Efficiency (percentage of cuts or flashes where player is open to receive the ball), also fifth among shooting guards, will open up a lot in Billy Donovan’s offense.
Last season it was give and take on the offensive end at the shooting guard. Waiters was wildly inconsistent, Roberson couldn’t hit a shot to save his life, and Morrow couldn’t get off the bench due to his lack of versatility and strangely slow feet. 2016-2017 will be a different story. OKC now has a complete shooting guard that complements his teammates.
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His contest+ field goal percentage is a little scary at 33.11, 47th among shooting guards. He is also turnover prone with a turnover per 100 touches of 5.10, but at least he’s better than Dion! Right?! Overall Oladipo’s offensive inefficiencies are greatly outweighed by his ability to share the ball, get open, and hit open shots.
Oladipo has ton of defensive tools. He ranks in the top 10 among shooting guards in 2 defensive categories:
- Blocks per 100 chances
- Deflections per 100 chances
- He is top 20 among shooting guards in 4 defensive categories:
- Loose Balls Possessed per 100 chances
- DReb+ per Chance
- Contest+ (Shot defense that is contested, altered, or blocked.)
- Turnovers forced per chance
He can be one of the most disruptive defenders in the league. With Andre Roberson and Russell Westbrook present, they could generate an enormous amount of fast break points.
It’s unclear whether Oladipo will start at this point, if he does it won’t be a choice for offense vs defense like it would be with Morrow or even Waiters. Oladipo can do both. After watching Roberson in the playoffs it makes you wonder if he’s even better off as a power forward. Against the Warriors he was basically a small ball center on offense. If he can improve his three point shot, he could be a very valuable forward for OKC. In the regular season he shot only one percentage point lower from three than Ibaka (31 percent for Roberson and 32 percent for Ibaka). That says more about how Ibaka struggled than how Roberson improved of course.
The biggest issue for Roberson in regards to shooting is the respect of the defense. If he can gain the respect of opponents beyond the arc, he can be an effective stretch player (and also a REALLY expensive player). Spacing could be an issue with a lineup of Westbrook, Oladipo, Durant, Roberson, and Adams, but the defensive versatility and speed would be breathtaking. (Assuming Durant returns)
A concern is Oladipo’s points allowed per screen. He ranked around 60th among shooting guards last season. Keep in mind he had to defend pick and rolls with Nikola Vucevic and screaming mad Scott Skiles behind him. I’m sure most players would give up the moment they saw a screen in that environment. This could of course be an issue in OKC as well, so I’d rather take the wait and see approach before saying those problems will be completely fixed. His Closeout Points Allowed are also way too high. The Magic as a team allowed the 2nd most closeout points last season, so this could be a schematic problem. This is still something to look at next season as a possible problem when Victor is on the floor.
Oladipo was a clear upgrade at the shooting guard spot from the moment the trade broke. If OKC brings back Waiters, it’s likely Morrow sees even less time this season. The three headed shooting guard of Roberson, Waiters and Oladipo would be very formidable on defense, and more than passable on offense. Oladipo can even slide over to play point guard in the event that Cam Payne struggles or if there is an injury.
Overall, Oladipo’s abilities may be a better fit than most realized with his combination of passing, cutting, ability to hit open shots, and his disruptive defensive style. It’s unclear whether the Thunder are now a better team, but they did get smarter, faster, and more disruptive.
