Will the Thunder defense struggle?

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Many have expressed concern about the Thunder’s spacing on offense for the coming year. Those concerns are warranted, but I wanted to address another worry… the defense.

The Thunder were 12th in Defensive Efficiency last season at 103, and it appeared they had really turned it on during the postseason. However they were little bit worse with a 103.2 defensive rating. They had moments of high energy switching defense that looked elite, but that averaged out with the few times OKC was blown out. What made the Thunder special was their length, athleticism and ability to switch. Now with the loss of Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant the Thunder have a more limited quantity of those attributes. In fact the two players that switched the most during last season were Durant and Ibaka. Andre Roberson switched only about half the amount that Ibaka did, although I can see that changing this season.

Let’s take a look at the current roster using ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus.

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As you can see the Thunder currently have 6 players making a positive impact on the defensive end per DRPM; Westbrook, Adams, Roberson, Collison, Oladipo and Huestis. Unfortunately two of them are Nick Collison and Josh Huestis, so it’s really 4. Nick may still play this season, but just situationally. Who knows with Huestis. He may have an opportunity to grab some playing time, or he could be the 15th man again. The positive impact they made was from a small sample size, so over the course of a season with real minutes who know if they actually end up making a positive impact.

The Good

Steven Adams is the clear anchor of the Thunder defense now. He ranked 14th among centers and 23rd overall in Defensive Real Plus Minus last season. He was the only Thunder player in the top 50 of DRPM last season, the Spurs had 4 in the top 50. The eye test says he took a leap in the playoffs, and considering he just turned 23 it’s safe to say he’s just scratching the surface of the player he can be. His mobility as a center is rare. His overall athleticism and basketball IQ give Adams the ability to become one of the best defenders in the league.

The other rock of the Thunder defense this season will be Andre Roberson. He can defend 1-4 (sometimes 5) and could be the starting small forward opening night. His defense on Klay Thompson was really impressive in the conference finals, especially when Thompson was driving. His value will prove to be in higher demand this season. He certainly doesn’t fit the profile offensively for Donovan, but his elite defense will be tough to keep off the court considering the alternatives.

Criticizing Russell Westbrook has become a pastime for many. One criticism that is warranted is his defense. With his skillset he should be one of the best defenders in the league. According to RPM he’s not that bad, 9th among point guards. Thunder fans say this every year, and it still remains true: If Russ will dedicate himself to staying solid and picking his spots defensively he could be Tony Allen with a killer offensive game… but alas it’s not something to be expected. He will have impressive moments, but overall he won’t be the elite defender we dream of. Even thought Russ isn’t elite he is still overall a net positive

Newly acquired Victor Oladipo is the last of this group. He has the ability to be a disruptive and feisty defender. Much like Westbrook, Oladipo can will fast breaks into existence, and will likely start next to Russ. With Roberson, Oladipo and Westbrook on the wing, they have an opportunity to continue the Thunder tradition of creating chaos in the backcourt. Oladipo brings a lot to this team: scoring, driving, ball handling, and passing. But his defense will make a huge difference on a team that is suddenly in need of that skillset.

Kyle Singler is nearly invisible on this chart… I thought that was fitting.

The Bad

(I didn’t include the rookies due to lack of data, but we can assume they are part of this group)

Ilyasova, Payne, Kanter, and Morrow were the 4 worst in DRPM on the team last year, and they all figure to be a part of the rotation. Payne is coming off his rookie season, and to be a positive player on that end from that position is nearly unheard of. However bad the eye test said he was on defense, DRPM doesn’t actually hate him, he ranked 35th among 80 point guards last season. He has pretty good instincts, and if he can gain some weight he could be a decent defender in the future.

Ersan Ilyasova projects as the starting power forward because of his shooting. He will provide the spacing Westbrook and Oladipo require on that end. However his defense will present problems for the Thunder. He ranks 81st among 90 PFs in DRPM. In such a heavy pick and roll league, giving Ersan starters minutes is a bit terrifying. Although, according to Vantage Sports, Ersan ranks 38th among PF’s in Points Allowed per Screen. His defense may not be as bad in that area as one would think.

On from one poor defending Turk to another… let’s talk about Enes Kanter. He undoubtedly made progress last season, but he still struggles to defend in space. Enes ranked 81st out of 82 centers in DRPM. He is such an interesting case. He has elite skills in rebounding and scoring, but is still a liability on defense. He was in the perfect role last season. 20 minutes off the bench mostly against second units. This season he will be asked to do more. He will play more. This fact alone will hurt the OKC’s already mediocre defense.

The last on this list is Anthony Morrow. He ranked 92nd out of 95 shooting guards in DRPM and 448 out of 462 total NBA players. Yet Donovan may look to Morrow this season because the Thunder will be desperate for shooting. His inability to defend can be shocking at times. You can tell he has the right idea or really wants to defend, but it’s truly a lack of athletic ability. The battle for minutes between Abrines and Morrow will be really interesting, and it may come down to defense.

The projected starting lineup of Russ, Oladipo, Roberson, Ilyasova, and Adams won’t be particularly bad defensively. They could even be good depending on the how well Ersan and Russ are able to play team defense. The Thunder’s top five three man lineups all included Steven Adams last season, and the top three had Andre Roberson per Basketball Reference. That’s the good news. The bad news is 4 out of those 5 included either Kevin Durant or Serge Ibaka. The only 3 man lineup that didn’t include either of those two was Westbrook, Adams, and Roberson, the 3rd best 3 man lineup. Finding the pieces to fit around them will be interesting and a challenge for Donovan. Oladipo and Ilyasova fit in theory, but we will see if it’s a positive lineup come the regular season.

The real struggle will come with the bench. Billy Donovan proved his chops in the playoffs, and he will have to do it again this season. He will have to teach the Thunder players to communicate and play together defensively. The Thunder will more than ever need to rely on team concepts on defense, rather than the uber athletic one on one defenders of the past. Kevin Durant is one of the best scorers in the NBA, clearly, but his versatility defensively will be missed just as much.