2014-15 Season Preview: 35 statements made with extreme confidence

It’s that time again, where I correctly predict 35 very important things that will happen during the Thunder’s season. I went 35-for-35 last season (note: don’t click this link) so you can fully expect all of these things to happen without fail.

This Thunder season does carry ample amounts of uncertainty with it, mainly because 90 percent of the team is, or has been injured. There’s no question of the team’s potential at full strength, but the question is how much they can survive for the 6 to 8 weeks where they’re not. How many games will this cost them? Enough to affect their seeding? Enough to drop them from having homecourt? The Thunder aren’t in serious amounts of trouble, regardless of how much teeth-gnashing there is during the first month. They just need to be right by April.

What it makes for is an interesting season. As if there weren’t already enough reasons to watch.

So here they are — 35 statements made with the irrational confidence of Russell Westbrook facing a one-on-four fast break. Let’s get stupid:

1. Russell Westbrook will lead the league in triple-doubles. He had three during the playoffs last season; the next closest guy was everyone else in the postseason tied with zero. When he gets into his I’m-gonna-kill-everyone mode, he becomes a nightmare on the offensive glass and just by process of elimination, he’s going to be running almost the entirety of the offense for at least a month. It’s going to become routine he has seven rebounds and nine assists heading into the fourth quarter.

2. Serge Ibaka will win Defensive Player of the Year. So much of this award is reputation based and while Ibaka has always been regarded highly because of his elite shot-blocking prowess, his defensive importance was on full display in the Western Conference finals, most notably in the two games he didn’t play. His absence elevated his reputation as the Thunder were shredded by the Spurs machine. Everyone knows Ibaka is a defensive monster, but now his flaws — pick-and-roll footwork, post defense — aren’t so glaring. The things that many saw as overrated empty number padding, like blocks, are actually kind of impactful when it comes to the Thunder’s team defense.

3. The Thunder will have to play a game with three players at some point in November. It may actually be opening night against the Blazers. Preseason is supposed to be a time for working out some kinks and making sure your team is ready for the 82-game haul ahead. Instead, the Thunder have been more beat up in October than they ever have. I don’t know what’s going on in those practices, but chill a bit maybe?

4. The Thunder will have three All-Stars. Russell Westbrook failed to make the All-Star team last season — probably unfairly — because of his extended absence in January. Kevin Durant is making the team regardless of how much of the first two months he misses, and Westbrook’s numbers are probably going to put him back on the team. The wildcard is Steven Adams, just kidding, Serge Ibaka, who will have a lot more focus placed on him. He’s going to be Westbrook’s primary two-man compadre, and will likely get more shots than he’s ever had. Ibaka probably should’ve made the team last season and while the West is deep as hell at power forward, one guy has moved East (Kevin Love). The main competition is Blake Griffin (who will be the starter), Anthony Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph and Dirk. Davis is probably making the team based off pure hype, but I think Ibaka could nudge out one of those others.

5. Steven Adams will start opening night. Not really a bold thought at this point, considering Kendrick Perkins hasn’t played a competitive game since May. The question is if Adams is still starting on Dec. 1. His preseason was spectacular and it’s apparent the big Kiwi is prime for a breakout season. His foul issues are still a worry, but that’s why you employ a solid backup behind him. What Scott Brooks has to manage is understanding the strengths and weaknesses of his two big men. Adams is by far a better rebounder and finisher, while Perk still is elite in terms of post defense. I don’t think a platoon mentality is the right idea, because the better player (Adams) needs to play, but keeping both completely engaged and confident is important. Because Perk has a role to play still. (Update: So, Brooks named Adams his starting center at practice on Tuesday.  I wrote this last night, I SWEAR. So I’m already 1-for-1!)

6. Westbrook will set a new game career-high… in assists. His career-high is 16, set all the way back in 2010. He’s flirted with topping it a few different times, but either the Thunder were well within a blowout (like his 14 in 20 minutes he had against the Sixers last season) or the team went iso heavy late. There’s so much focus on how many shots Westbrook might heave that some are forgetting how stubborn and defiant Westbrook can be. He hears you. He knows you think he’s going to shoot 58 times in a game. And he can’t wait to show off the fact he’s a POINT GUARD DAMMIT that makes his teammates better. He’ll have a game where his dishes out 17 or 18 dimes and then he’ll show up post game wearing a a sleeveless Starter jacket and a hardhat.

7. Okay, and points too. His career-high is 45. He’s going after that.

8. Andre Roberson will start all 82 games. Is he Thabo 2.0? No clue. But he does defend, and the Thunder seem to have an affinity for that, especially at tipoff.

9. Anthony Morrow will hit 200 3-pointers. This is going to be more difficult now considering Morrow will miss something like 15-20 games because of an MCL strain. In order to get there, he’ll have to hit something like 3.2 3s a game. Do-able, but a pretty big ask. But considering he’s going to get a ton of looks because of the pressure Westbrook and Durant place on opponents, he’s going to get his chances.

10. Steven Adams will finish with 10 double-doubles. Do you know how many starting Thunder centers have had in the last three seasons? Two. Yes, two. Last season, Thunder centers produced just one, and it came from Adams against the Pistons (not counting his in Game 6 against the Clippers). He’s going to get the minutes and he’s already shown his ability. Really, 10 might be selling him short.

11. Kevin Durant will return Dec. 14 against the Suns. Three days after the Thunder and Cavs square off in OKC. One, it doesn’t strike me as a great idea to play Durant in his first game back in one of such intensity, and second, no reason to let the Cavs get a complete look at the Thunder, if you know what I mean. So put me down in the pool for Dec. 14.

12. Kendrick Perkins will forget to wear shoes one game.

13. The Thunder won’t finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Originally, I had this prediction as they would finish in the top five in both. But with what’s probably going to be an ugly November, especially offensively, they might be in too big of a hole to dig out of. A top 10 finish in both is almost assured, but it’s asking a lot to get into the top five.

14. Durant won’t win the scoring title. He’s won four of the last five, and now has staked his name officially on the MVP trophy. Those type of things are a lot less important to Durant than they used to be and with him coming off an injury, he’s going to be a lot more aware of stats in April and May than those in January and February.

15. Adams will foul out 11 times. Or maybe 82 times. I’m not even sure at this point.

16. Adams will force four ejections and two suspensions. Keep your hands to yourself, everyone. Because Stache Adams is just playing hard. No hard feelings.

17. Durant will make an All-Defense team. Third team, I’m guessing. But still! Durant’s defense has been undersold the past few seasons, but I think with his absence people will get a look at how important his length and athleticism is to what the Thunder do defensively, primarily in terms of contesting jumpshots.

18. The Thunder will let 18 trade exceptions expire. I’ve lost track of how many they have. But I’m sure they’ll all expire.

19. Scott Brooks will use 15 different starting lineups. One, we know of for sure: Westbrook, Roberson, Jones, Ibaka and Adams will start on opening night. Then we obviously know of the one when Durant returns. Brooks is going to have to mix and match a bit more this season, trying new things as he patches his way through the first few months. And I think he’s grown in confidence in terms of adjusting and using his roster’s versatility.

20. Mitch McGary will set a Twitter record for emoji use. [praise hands]

21. Steven Adams will pop a basketball pulling down a rebound.

22. Westbrook will be suspended a game because of technicals. Somehow, he picked up three straight in the preseason. I don’t know how that’s even possible, but Westbrook’s anger level will be boiling over, especially when the Thunder are down 14 in the second half against the Clippers. By the time Durant returns, he’ll probably have hit double-digits already.

23. Reggie Jackson will win Sixth Man of the Year. There’s not a ton of competition for it at this point — Isaiah Thomas, Ryan Anderson, Jamal Crawford, Manu Ginobili the top contenders — and Jackson is out to prove his worth of a big contract. He quietly had a terrific statistical year last season, but didn’t seem to grab any of the necessary buzz to be considered. Now he’s a bit of a household name in terms of bench production and will have a bit more attention.

24. Sometime around March, Scott Brooks will finally learn he’s been saying “flustrated” instead of “frustrated.” Put me down for March 8 in the pool.

25. The Thunder won’t make a significant trade deadline move and there will be griping. Something to read into here: I don’t think the Thunder are trading Reggie Jackson this season, regardless of his contract situation. They’ve never let anyone reach restricted free agency, and while they sure as heck don’t want him to now, they’re going to ride the year out and see what happens. Jackson’s not too important to lose, but he probably is this season.

26. Durant will have his minutes slashed by two a game. He’s averaged no less than 38.5 since his rookie season. With the injury, plus the fact the team wanted to reduce them anyway coming in to this season, they’re going to try and get him somewhere into the 36 a game range. If Durant plays 65 games, that’s saving him about 130 minutes, which is more than two and a half games of extra rest. That counts.

27. Nick Collison’s hair will average a double-double. IN OUR HEARTS.

28. The Thunder will lose to the Wizards in Washington D.C. The one thing you can be absolutely sure of this season. This will happen.

29. Jeremy Lamb will do just enough to buy more time in a Thunder uniform. One of the more amazing things to me is how often I’m asked if Lamb is a complete failure and the Thunder should dump him. Here’s something: Did you know he’s younger than Victor Oladipo? Lamb played some really solid minutes for the Thunder for almost half the season last year — remember the Reggie Lamb phenomenon? — capped by an impressive 18 points on 7-10 shooting against the Heat in January? He slumped a bit after that and eventually lost his confidence and job with the addition of Caron Butler. If anything, the Thunder messed up, not Lamb, for sitting him and not letting him work through it all.

30. When the Thunder play the Knicks on Nov. 28, Derek Fisher will inexplicably play 10 fourth quarter minutes for the Thunder. Or maybe it’ll just be Serge Ibaka passing him the ball while Fish stands on the Knicks bench because no one bothered to tell Ibaka that Fish wasn’t on the team anymore.

31. Durant will finish third in MVP voting. LeBron is winning this thing, and there’s really no stopping it unless he gets hurt or the Cavs underachieve greatly. That team is going from a doormat to a contender, plus LeBron has restored the goodwill of the media. Durant can probably recover from his injury enough to at least get in the conversation, but Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Stephen Curry are probably all going to get serious run at it as well. In the end, Durant returning to restore order to the Thunder will pump him into the debate enough to finish in the top five for a fifth straight season.

32. The Thunder will finish with 58 wins. Originally, I had them winning 60, but Durant’s injury is going to cost them a few and really, with the loss of Morrow, Lamb and Jackson to start the season, it’ll probably cost them a lot more than two. But I hold a lot of belief in Westbrook’s superstardom and think a team with two top 20 players can still compete on a nightly basis in the NBA. The Thunder have a process in place to survive these types of injuries and if anything, this could be good for them.

33. The Thunder will finish second in the West. First? I think it’ll be the Clippers. The Spurs put a lot of energy and effort into righting the wrongs of Game 6 and basking in their championship, they’re going to lack a bit of that cutting regular season edge. The West is nasty good with a number of teams set to be in the conversation. In the end, having Durant for hopefully 75 percent of the season will be enough to boost the Thunder up to No. 2.

34. The Thunder will play the Cavs in the Finals. LeBron v. Durant, part two. I’ve already gone through three pairs of pants just writing that last sentence. The Cavs obviously will be very good and while there are some roadblocks for them — the Bulls, Wizards and Raptors, most notably — their path is considerably more open than the Thunder’s. Having the league’s top player will help them sort through any issues Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving have in overcoming their lack of playoff experience.

35. The Thunder will win in six games. That’s right. Championship. The Thunder have had a remarkable run already, but all of that has been a precursor to finally getting over the hump. The setbacks have all been part of a greater experience, something every team has to go through before that final breakthrough. The Harden trade, Westbrook’s meniscus, Ibaka’s calf — all pieces in the puzzle. Durant has been at the front of it all and as he steps back to heal from his injury, he has time to obsess about what’s important. He’s grown, he’s learned, he’s experienced. He’s failed, he’s cried, he’s been broken. All of that has been building, and maybe this time it’s all ready to come together. It’s his time.

Enjoy the season, y’all.