Data Query: Thunder Free Throws
In case you hadn't heard, The Thunder aren't taking many free throws this season. We've been keeping track of Oklahoma City's dismal freebie disparity. OKC is 12-4 against its opponents, but 2-14 the free throw battle in the same games. They are second-worst in the league in free throw attempt rate (FTr).
Mark Daigneault is unhappy. The fans are arguing online. And as the team continues to struggle offensively, the free throw woes feel like a long-term concern (even as the wins keep piling up).
What do the numbers mean? We asked Aidan Elrod and JD Tailor to help break it down.
Is OKC's low free throw rate (FTr) a postseason liability?
Elrod: The Thunder's FTr deficiency rears its ugly head when the Thunder aren't forcing turnovers. In the playoffs, where games are typically closer and the margins are thinner, losing the battle of free throws consistently would be hard to overcome across multiple series. When OKC is making up the margin in other ways (i.e. the turnover battle or offensive rebounding), they can still win with big discrepancies like this.
Tailor: The Thunder are having to work harder to get wins in the regular season because they cannot bank on getting a bucket of easy points at the stripe. Occasionally, those effort levels will slip and the Thunder will lose games that they should win on the margins. The Western Conference is always a bloodbath, and seeding matters a great deal.
Is the refereeing or the roster to blame?
Elrod: The biggest culprit in the Thunder's ability to get to the free throw line are the players. Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace were all poor foul-drawers fouls in college, so why are we expecting anything different in the NBA?
While the Thunder may lead the league in drives, they are only 15th in rim frequency and 17th in short-two frequency, the areas prone to generating the most shooting fouls. The Thunder often drive to the rim three times in one possession with the purpose of kicking it out to the perimeter each time. That isn't predictive for free throwing shooting – despite what some fans insist.
I've only been disappointed in Williams' season in this regard. Shai, as we all know, is fantastic at getting to the line and should probably be there a bit more than he is. Chet Holmgren had made a leap in foul-drawing before his unfortunate injury. Everyone else on the roster is just bad at it.
Tailor: I think the Thunder generally get a fair whistle but the referees miss the mark on Williams. JDub takes a pounding when attacking the basket, but rarely gets the sort of 50/50 calls that other stars do.
The issue was exacerbated in Chet's absence, as the Thunder were not really playing with any downward pressure on the basket. Without a big on the floor, the Thunder would have been wise to draw up actions with more cuts, catch-and-gos, and movement toward the hoop beyond the primary driver. Isaiah Hartenstein's return has come at the best time.
Could the Thunder's FTr jeopardize their title hopes?
Elrod: The Thunder should be okay in the end. Whether this deficiency improves by having actual big men that enable you to play more conservative defense (instead of constantly lunging for steals and blocks), or by an external addition, Oklahoma City is a contender, and will still look like one by the end of the year.
Tailor: It's important for championship-level teams to win games without getting out of second gear. Look at Denver in 2023 and Boston in 2022: both teams were able to conserve energy in the regular season, and then exert maximum effort when the games got serious. My worry is that if the Thunder are constantly having to work harder than the rest of the field, then they may be worn down at the worst time.
Tell us what you think in the comments!