Dealing Reggie Jackson: What’s realistic and what’s not

“And I know it’s over – still I cling
I don’t know where else I can go
Over and over and over and over
Over and over”
— The Smiths

An escape plan has been hatched by Reggie Jackson’s camp. The Thunder may well be preparing for life without Reggie despite public words to the contrary.

I’ve arrived at those conclusions after both sides made their public presentations following the passing of the October 31 deadline for extending Jackson’s contract. Jackson’s side was revealed via Yahoo! Sports’ omniscient one Adrian Wojnarowski, which reiterated Jackson’s stated desire to land a starting job in the NBA. Likewise, Thunder GM Sam Presti reiterated the organization’s stance that Jackson is considered a core member of the team and insists the team will match any offer Jackson signs next summer.

It may not come to that. The NBA trade deadline is on February 19, 2015. If the situation doesn’t settle down, Reggie Jackson may not be on the Thunder roster come February 20, 2015.

If Jackson is traded, where might he land? It’s unlikely the Thunder would trade him based solely on the threat of a team overpaying him this summer. It would take something fairly drastic, such as Jackson becoming a distraction which frankly, sounds very un-Reggie-like. Trading him may not bring back an immediate equivalent player in return and could damage the Thunder’s title hopes.

Fans are already lining up Grand Slam deals. Those are, after all, the most fun ones. Making up trades can be fun. It’s also a mostly pointless exercise. I’ve followed the NBA for 20-plus years and concocted countless deals. I came close only once (I cooked up an Allen Iverson-to-Denver deal in 2006 that actually went down, but not anywhere close to how I designed it). NBA trades are far from “here’s my talent, give me your talent.” The financial angle makes many trades resemble Credit Default Swaps. The NBA is a world full of three and four-team trade possibilities. Trying to fantasize that many moving parts can be hazardous to one’s health and should be left to the experts to handle. It’s also difficult for fans to rationally view their proposed trade from the other team’s perspective.

With all that said, rather than futz around with trade predictions that will likely never come to pass, I present some thoughts on where Jackson could land.

Five places Jackson is most unlikely to land:

1. A team with an established All-Star point guard (Chicago, Cleveland, Washington, San Antonio, Portland, Golden State, LA Clippers). Yes, that’s several places. Fine, I cheated.

2. A team that has made a recent substantial investment in their point guard (Toronto, Charlotte, Minnesota). Fine, I cheated again.

3. Orlando – Some might recall the link between Oklahoma City and former hand Rob Hennigan, currently the Magic General Manager. The Magic appear vested in 2014 first-round pick Elfrid Payton and would seem unlikely to shift gears and pursue Jackson. Buying a custom “OLADIPO” Thunder jersey at the NBA Store would be a bad investment.

4. Phoenix – The Suns qualify to be included in one of the spots above, with All-Star Goran Dragic and a recent five-year, $70 million investment in Eric Bledsoe. The Suns also invested $27 million over four years in Isaiah Thomas and drafted Tyler Ennis in the 2014 draft. They’re kind of set at the position.

5. Boston – Even if the Celtics decided to move on from Rondo (more on this later); they drafted former Oklahoma State Cowboy Marcus Smart in June to solidify the point guard position for the next several years.

Five places Jackson is most likely to land:

1. Detroit – New team czar Stan Van Gundy is just starting a rebuilding job. The marriage of the meticulous Van Gundy and the wild-and-free Brandon Jennings doesn’t seem long for this world. Jackson seems like the kind of player Van Gundy would seek out.

2. Indiana – The Pacers aren’t likely to panic and over-react in the midst of what is likely a lost season without star Paul George. Factor in the loss of offense creator Lance Stephenson to Charlotte and there’s a void that Jackson could fill for this team. If you want to connect dots that may not exist, Jackson and George share the same agent (Aaron Mintz of CAA Sports).

3. Miami – It seems almost treasonous to consider dealing with the Heat, but Jackson makes sense in a LeBron-less Miami lineup. The catch is Miami could be more concerned with keeping the books clean in 2016 to chase some teammate of Jackson’s.

4. L.A. Lakers – The Lakers have a clear need for someone like Jackson, but hell if I can come up with an enticing package from them. It is likely they will be granted a pair of Disabled Player Exceptions soon, so perhaps they can use the ability to buy short-term debt as a trade asset in some multi-team trade scenario. Other than that… Ryan Kelly, anyone?

5. New York – The Knicks seem semi-set at point guard with Jose Calderon, Pablo Prigioni and Shane Larkin. They may also have their sights set on bigger prizes like Marc Gasol and this Durant fella I keep reading about. However, their head coach is familiar with Jackson’s skill set.

Five players the Thunder are NOT likely to acquire in exchange for Jackson:

1. Numerous obvious candidates such as LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin, et al. You’d think this would be obvious but you just never know what an experienced Trade Machine user might cough up.

2. Greg Monroe – The Piston power forward signed a 1-year contract with Detroit over the summer. He’s eligible for full Bird rights, which basically means a team can leverage this exception and exceed the salary cap to re-sign him. Under this scenario, Monroe can veto any deal. If he did sign off on a deal, he’d have to forfeit his Bird rights in the process. Oklahoma City is over the salary cap and would be hampered in their ability to re-sign him in the summer of 2015. I doubt the Thunder would be interested in such a rental scenario.

3. Jeff Green – Former Thunder players are like warm, fuzzy blankets to the fans. We’re comfortable with them. We know them. We may even miss them after a time away from them. There’s a case to be made that Green could return as a more established version of Perry Jones III. Or the Thunder could, y’know, ride this Perry Jones III thing and see where it goes for a fraction of the price.

4. Kyle Korver – I throw him in this list mostly because Thunder fans have been obsessed with the stunningly handsome former Creighton star for years. Back in July I mused on Twitter that the Thunder could trade Thabo Sefolosha to Atlanta after he’d agreed to terms with the Hawks. I got hit with a few “KORVER???” tweets. The Thunder are probably never acquiring Kyle Korver, folks.

5. Rajon Rondo – He’s 28 years old, a four-time All-Star, an All-Star talent when healthy, a 38 to 42 minute-per-game playoff performer and angling for a large contract. I have a hard time seeing how that makes him a fit as Oklahoma City’s sixth man for the next several seasons.

Five players the Thunder could realistically target in exchange for Jackson:

1. Kobe Bryant – The Laker legend has a no-trade clause but may be willing to escape from L.A. given the current status of the team.

(Gotcha! I could not be any less serious. I’m just seeing if you’ve dozed off. There’s a better chance of hitting the moon with a raspberry than of ever seeing Kobe Bryant in a Thunder uniform.)

1. George Hill – The name isn’t sexy. He is, however, a very good defender and a career 37 percent 3-point shooter. He is also out for a period of time, unfortunately. He’s not the shot creator that Jackson is, but Hill would bring a lot of serviceable skill to the Thunder bench. He’s under contract for two more seasons after this one for $16 million total.

2. Shabazz Napier – One can’t know for certain if the Thunder ever considered the former UConn guard in the 2014 draft, but fans were quick to slot him at No. 21 in their mock drafts. Jeremy Lamb’s former college teammate could fit in nicely as Russell Westbrook’s backup.

3. Michael Carter-Williams – Yes, I’m aware he won the Rookie of the Year award. He’s been in trade rumors ever since and it doesn’t seem like Philadelphia is all that attached to him. He averaged 16.7/6.2/6.3 last season and shot 40 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3. This was all done on a terrible 76ers squad. Imagine Jackson’s stats had he played Carter-Williams’ part instead. The Sixers would move the second-year point guard if it helped accomplish whatever it is they are trying to accomplish.

4. Greivis Vasquez – He re-signed with the Raptors last summer for two years and $13 million. He’s an old high school teammate of Durant’s back in the Montrose Christian days. And that may be why a large reason why the Raptors wouldn’t deal him to the Thunder since he’s a potential recruiting tool. But if a sensible deal could be made with the Raptors, Vasquez has the tools to be an excellent backup at both guard spots for most teams, including the Thunder.

5. Someone Off the Map – Throw in your Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, CJ Miles, Khris Middleton, Iman Shumpert and Tyler Ennis types here. Let’s get weird.