Deep Thoughts From a Shallow Mind: Kanter Komeback Edition

Feels like a good time to throw together some random thoughts in light of Enes Kanter’s return to Oklahoma City, a decision that churned out far more hot takes than I imagined when the season ended in April.

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I’m fully aware of Kanter’s struggles (that’s putting it lightly) on the defensive end of the floor. I’ve seen the Real Plus/Minus numbers making the rounds that show Kanter is the worst defender this side of a Mexican maximum-security prison. Hell, in the past I’ve used RPM as *part* of my player evaluation, largely to help defend Kendrick Perkins’ value to the Thunder.

(For those not hip to these geeky things, RPM attempts to isolate a player’s offense and defense, measured in positive or negative offensive and defensive production, that from his teammates. Being the team sport that basketball is, that’s nearly impossible to do.)

However, no single stat is the end-all, be-all of a player. We’ve been down this road before with PER. It isn’t necessarily a scarlet number branded to a player for life.

First thing I thought of when all of the RPM screenshots started making the rounds on Twitter: does anyone recall who ranked seventh overall in the NBA in overall RPM in 2013-14? Tim Duncan? Kevin Love? Russell Westbrook? Blake Griffin? Nope.

Nick Collison.

Not saying the RPM stat is fatally flawed. It’s just not wise to put an incredible amount of weight on one stat. It’s also important to understand that there’s context to every stat.

Having said all of that, yeah Kanter is light years behind on the defensive end. Either his brain or his feet or both have not allowed him to be an effective NBA defender. But if you insist on playing the RPM card to the max, consider this: Marco Belinelli played 25 minutes per game for the 2013-14 Spurs and had the worst RPM among shooting guards (-3.53). Didn’t seem to affect the Spurs all that much. Having strong defenders around him certainly helped.

Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton posted a DRPM of -3.50 in 2013-14. Last season that number completely flipped and then some. He posted a +4.09 and was the best among shooting guards in that area (and eighth-best in the league). He also just inked a 5-year deal worth $70 million. Funny what better teammates and a better coach can do for a guy.

Let’s give Kanter some actual coaching and a fully healthy group of teammates and then pass judgement.

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It’s an annual tradition: young player gets his first contract after his rookie scale deal and hands start wringing. If it’s not a no-brainer like locking up a Kevin Durant or Blake Griffin for max money, many deals look questionable on the outset.

Granted, some do turn out to be flops, such as Larry Sanders’ 4-year, $44 million extension with the Bucks. That’s an extreme case, though. Other bad rookie extensions come to mind, such as Andrea Bargnani’s 5-year, $50 million deal and Andris Beidrins’ 6-year, $62 million extension. There’s the occasional extension that gets derailed due to injuries, such as Brandon Roy’s $80 million deal or Danny Granger’s $60 million deal.

But for the most part, young players get deals that seem over-valued at the time but turn out fine. Joakim Noah got 5/$60 million. So did Al Horford. DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors both received extensions that didn’t generate positive reviews. Mike Conley’s 5/$40 million deal was the butt of many jokes, and he’s been criminally underpaid ever since. DeMar DeRozan’s 4/$40 deal drew laughs, and that one also turned out OK. And there were many eyebrows raised when the Thunder gave Russell Westbrook 5/$80 million and Serge Ibaka 4/$44 million.

Give young players a chance to show growth before holding them to task for their lucrative deals.

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To recap, since the season ended the Thunder has dropped $25 million on Kyle Singler, $70 million on Kanter, and $30 million for Billy Donovan. They are still paying Scott Brooks as well. Enough with the “cheap” label, maybe?

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Is all of this spending really “desperation spending to try and keep Kevin Durant” if they put this plan in place years ago?

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Saw some rumblings about how Kanter was selfish for signing Portland’s offer sheet. Hopefully this is just fervent fan response in the moment. There should be no issue with Kanter maximizing his value. The Thunder made a fair offer, reportedly four years and $62 million, and Kanter thought he could get more. Good for him.

Having said that, I don’t love the deal Kanter got, even if his 2015-16 salary will “feel” more like $13.7 million and his 2017-18 salary may only “feel” like a similar amount. The player option in year 4 might be his undoing in Oklahoma City down the road. Sam Presti has never negotiated player options into contracts and has steered clear of acquiring players that have them. It adds a layer of uncertainty when planning for the future and can give a player a lot of leverage. Tacking on a trade kicker complicates matter when making deals down the road, but that may be less of an issue when scads of teams have gobs of cap room.

Kanter may turn into an indispensable player for the Thunder. He’ll need to be in order to make dealing with that player option palatable.