Film Study: Damian Lillard sets fire to the Thunder

On Sunday, the Thunder led the Trail Blazers by eight. 103-95, with 3:19 remaining. And then a combination of Damian Lillard and poor perimeter defense led to the Blazers outscoring OKC 20-7 after that to win 115-110.

Lillard hit five (five!) (FIVE!) 3-pointers in three minutes. Allen Crabbe hit another one, which means the Blazers hit six total in three minutes. That’s more than four teams hit per game this season.

As you’d expect, there’s been plenty of hang-wringing and grumbling today about the unseemly loss, and most of it has centered around the Thunder’s annoyingly inconsistent defense, and most specifically, Russell Westbrook.

But was Westbrook completely at fault here? Was it really just Lillard getting hot and hitting tough shots? Or what went wrong defensively? Westbrook always likes to say he’ll “look at the film” to see what happened, so I did. Here’s what happened:

The first one: 3:06 remaining, 103-95

A simple 1-5 high screen-and-roll between Lillard and Mason Plumlee. Steven Adams’ initial positioning is really poor — he’s at least one big step too far to his right when Plumlee sets the screen — and he’s slow to react in getting a contest on Lillard’s pull-up. There’s nothing complicated here. Lillard gets a good pick, the timing is solid, and Adams is late.

Now, the blame could go two places: 1) On Adams for being in the wrong position and falling asleep ever so slightly or 2) Or, like I mentioned last night, on Billy Donovan for having Adams on the floor at all and not going small to switch everything 1-through-5. The Blazers had Lillard, McCollum, Crabbe, Aminu and Plumlee on the floor here. Ibaka could be playing the 5, and with either Dion Waiters or, actually probably the best option, Kyle Singler, on the floor, the Thunder could’ve guarded this easier.

Because you’ll notice: The Blazers didn’t run any 1-4 pick-and-roll to involve Serge Ibaka. Teams largely avoid doing that because Ibaka is an excellent defender switching on to guards. So they targeted Adams, who is a very good defender, but got beat here.

The second one: 2:38 remaining, 105-98

Something interesting about Lillard: He’s actually a better 3-point shooter from 25-29 feet (39.9 percent) than he is at 24 feet (36.1). Still: Would you say this is a great shot? And do you entirely blame Westbrook for switching off slightly to allow it?

Here, the Blazers do run 1-4 pick-and-roll, but it’s improvised from an out of bounds play, and Ibaka really is positioned semi-decently. It’s just that Lillard, wisely, pulls up from four feet behind the line where he has space, rather than taking a dribble to where Ibaka can contest him. Now, of course, you could say this is bad recognition by Ibaka — and Westbrook — to not know Lillard is deadly from 25-feet and beyond, but then again, you can see why maybe you’re not exactly thinking he’s going to pull from there. And really, they’re probably thinking that’s a pretty bad early clock shot to take anyway.

Still, Lillard made it and everything looks bad because of it. Westbrook could’ve fought harder through Aminu’s screen, and Ibaka naturally could’ve showed much harder. They basically let Lillard have an open 28-footer.

The third one: 2:11 remaining, 107-101

Here’s the 1-5 pick-and-roll again, and Adams get put on an island and at the mercy of Lillard’s nasty step-back. It’s really not the worst contest in the world, but once Lillard makes a couple, he’s the kind of guy that can pretty much flick them in from anywhere.

Again, this is more on Donovan for not making the change to go small here than anything else. So much of the focus today has been on Westbrook, because he’s a point guard and Lillard is a point guard, so therefore that has to be Westbrook’s man, but defense is a 1-through-5 kind of thing and this is a breakdown because Adams got exposed, not because Westbrook didn’t man up and take the challenge and put da locks on him, like so many are saying today.

The fourth one: 2:00 remaining, 108-104

Hey! Lillard didn’t hit this one! Good job Russ! Uh, Russ? Where are you my man? I see only four guys in blue here.

Allen Crabbe’s 3 came in a transition opportunity, with the Thunder failing to get entirely back and matched up. But here’s the problem: This “transition opportunity” wasn’t after a turnover or even a long rebound. It was after a… free throw. Steven Adams missed the second of two, and Westbrook went flying in to try and grab the offensive board. The Blazers hit an outlet, McCollum drove it and Crabbe was wide open.

Regardless, it’s not an impossible thing to match up and know personnel, and the Thunder as a whole did a horrible job of identifying the shooters and finding them.

The fifth one: 1:31 remaining, 110-107

This, by my estimation, is the one of the five that is undoubtedly, undeniably, unquestionably, Russell Westbrook’s fault. By this point, Donovan has wised up to go small, getting Adams off the floor. So Plumlee is about to set a little cross-screen to try and free Lillard on a drag. Lillard gives Westbrook a little nudge, and backs out quickly to the 3-point line. Either Westbrook got pushed harder than it looks, or he simply lost a little concentration, because Lillard got way too much space.

I watched it like 12 times, and I keep wanting to find someone that should’ve pulled off their man to help, but really, this is just Westbrook getting knocked off balance and Lillard getting free. That’s it.

The sixth one: 1:12 remaining, 110-110

On one hand, this was the most difficult. On the other, Lillard was so warmed by this point, it effectively was an open layup.

Lillard shoots about 33 percent on pull-up 3s. That’s not a great percentage, but certainly not bad. Roberson was clearly aware, and tried to get a solid contest. Lillard just nailed it in his face. Because he’s super good.

So, the breakdowns. Who are they on and whose fault is this? Some Donovan for being a few possessions late on the sub. (But then again, that sub only became obvious after Lillard had hit three 3s.) Some Adams for being out of position. Some Ibaka for doing the same. Some Westbrook, once for gambling for an offensive board, and once for losing Lillard entirely. And mostly Lillard for being a cold-blooded as expletive.