Five questions on the state of the Thunder

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So, the Thunder are 11-8 now. Not counting The Season From Hell (2014-15), past three years, the Thunder have lost their eighth games on Jan. 7, Jan. 7 and March 3 (lockout season, so that’s like Jan. 7-ish again). Yes, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for six games, losing three in that stretch. But now with him, they’re 8-5.

They just dropped consecutive games on an Eastern road trip that featured two days off between games. Both were two possession games, and in total, the Thunder were probably four plays combined from winning both. Four plays they didn’t make. And lost. So, what’s going on here and do you have permission to panic? Five questions on the state of the Thunder:

1. What was up with crunchtime Thursday against Miami?

The final 4:53 of the game, the Thunder made one shot. It was a Durant catch-and-shoot 3 off a nicely designed out-of-timeout set. They had eight shots in that span, every single one 15 feet or more away from the basket. They took six 3s, Serge Ibaka took a midrange jumper (which was a pretty good look), and Durant missed a pull-up 20-footer. The halfcourt offense didn’t necessarily stagnate, at least not in the traditional Thunder sense. There was still solid movement and better spacing on the floor, but they still couldn’t generate anything penetrating the paint. The Heat took away initial actions, and the Thunder sort of scrambled to find something reasonable. And as it’s always been, it was all pretty much dependent on whether or not Durant was going to make or miss a tough shot.

The shot most were focused on, though, was Durant’s with seven seconds remaining. It was a 25-foot wing 3, coming off the dribble. In a tie game, is a 3 the shot you’re looking for? Well, that depends on two things: 1) Was it open and 2) who is taking it? In this case, it was pretty open and Kevin Durant was taking it.

Check and check. It was a good shot.

Would you rather get something at the basket? Obviously. But in this case, there was a differential between play and shot clock, meaning the Heat were going to get a final look. It looked like the play was to isolate Durant with space on rookie Justise Winslow and let him attack, draw defenders and kick, or score. Instead, Durant shook Winslow with a quick cross, creating space and almost surprised by the space he had, lifted to fire. It was not off balance, it was not forced. It was clean, it was good, it was a shot Durant makes a lot. Like this one. Remember that one? And that’s one of many. This one, he missed.

Also, what would you be saying if it was Stephen Curry taking that shot? The Warriors play beautiful basketball, but in key moments, like every team since James Naismith hung a peach basket — yes, even the Spurs — sometimes they fall into some hero ball. Go watch how they beat the Jazz the other night. It was this shot Curry hit. Look familiar?

Final point on this: Some say you drive at the basket because you could score, or get fouled, like Wade did on the following play. That’s great in theory, but in Wade’s case, he was at the mercy of two things outside his control happening: 1) the Thunder had to be dumb enough to foul him and 2) he had to get the referee to blow the whistle. When you drive with an intention to get to the line, which is something a lot of people often say you should do in crunchtime, you’re taking the game out of your own hands and putting it in someone else’s. Is that better than a 40-percent shot from Kevin Durant?

2. Why can’t they win close games?

In some ways, it feels like you can justify the losses, especially the most recent two by pointing at a few critical plays that just didn’t go the Thunder’s way. If Paul Millsap doesn’t make a fantastic play blocking Ibaka from behind or the Thunder secure the loose ball following Ibaka’s block a possession before, they probably beat the Hawks. If Durant drops a relatively clean look from 3, or the Thunder don’t panic and foul Wade, they probably beat the Heat. Then they’re 13-6 and have won six straight. And you feel better.

But here’s an important part: They didn’t. And in reality, a really good team makes a few other plays here and there and has a six-point cushion instead of a two-point one. Close games are often a toss-up and you can be at the mercy of a bad whistle, a bad bounce, a missed look that normally goes in or a great player just making a great play on you. So leaving yourself to vulnerable to those things is what you want to avoid. Still: We’re used to seeing the Thunder win regardless. They have not one, but two of the best clutch time players in the world and yet they are just 3-6 in games decided by six or less. In games Durant has played, they’re 2-5. That’s disconcerting.

When you look at the Warriors, they make every little play necessary in a tight game. Whether they’re holding on to a four-point lead or they’re coming back from 10, in those final three minutes, they make 10 out of 10 of the plays they’ve got to have. The Thunder make eight out of 10. Lately, it’s been more like six out of 10. Whether it’s a loose ball finding it’s way to Millsap, or Durant missing a free throw, or not getting a rebound, or Russell Westbrook getting his pocket picked by Goran Dragic, the game-changing plays aren’t going the Thunder’s way.

3. Is the team just not as good?

The Thunder have been the same team at their core for the last eight seasons running. It’s Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka (and Nick Collison), plus varying role players around them.

Missing from the 59-win team from 2013-14 that lost in six games in the West Finals: Jeremy Lamb, Caron Butler, Derek Fisher, Thabo Sefolosha, Kendrick Perkins, Perry Jones, Hasheem Thabeet and Reggie Jackson.

Missing from the 60-win team from 2012-13: Fisher, Eric Maynor, Sefolosha, Perkins, Kevin Martin, Jackson, Lamb, Jones, Thabeet and Ronnie Brewer.

Are you really going to tell me that the roster is suddenly that much worse from those two teams? Maybe “veteran leadership” really is that important because the minutes that were going to Fisher, Perkins, Sefolosha and Butler are now going to Dion Waiters, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow and Enes Kanter. It would seem there’s more depth and more talent. It would seem. It’s not that Durant and Westbrook’s usage is down or anything, if you’re wondering. The difference? Team defense. The Thunder are no longer elite or even borderline elite on that end. Maybe that’s partially on Ibaka not being the usual rim protecting marauder he has been, but it seems to be a deeper issue. Is it possible Perkins’ accountability and communication actually did make that much of a difference?

4. Is this Billy Donovan’s fault?

No, probably not. Yet, at least. You can change a lot of things, you can tweak, you can adjust, but at their heart, this team is who it is. You’re not going to overhaul the way Russell Westbrook plays. Nor should you.

Sure, some of the lineups he’s tried haven’t worked, and he may be erring on some minor in-game moves. But all of those are acceptable collateral damage of a new coach feeling out a new team. He has to try those lineups to have any idea if they’re functional. What was a big critique of Scott Brooks? That he was too rigid and didn’t adjust. So now you’re going to complain about Donovan being too experimental?

In-game moves are obviously important, but for the most part, games are won and lost before they tip off. The Warriors are 20-0 without their head coach. Not that Luke Walton isn’t doing a good job, but that team knows exactly what its doing before Walton has to make any kind of in-game move. Once you build the principles and framework, the rest kind of just takes care of itself.

Donovan has to play the players he has, and maybe that means tweaking the rotation (like he did benching Kyle Singler), or doing something drastic like changing the starting five. Coaches are always the easy target, the low-hanging fruit to point at. But if your complaint is that they look just like a Scott Brooks team, you’re probably right. Old habits die hard and these players have gone about this the same way for seven years. One difference, though: Scott Brooks’ teams were at least winning.

5. How much more patience?

That’s the word everyone in the organization is going to lean on. It is true: It’s December and you can look back at other good teams that started slowly but by March and April had turned it on and found themselves. If you could choose, it’s better to win four straight in June than 20 straight in November.

Plus, this season has been kind of weird. League wide, good teams (non-Warriors, Cavs or Spurs division, otherwise known as the division the Thunder are supposed to be a part of), are inconsistently winning. Even at 11-8, the Thunder are third in the West.

Now, all that said, 11-8 isn’t good enough for this team. Not with these players, especially in this season. Preaching patience often just feels like a diversion to look out the window while the house burns down behind you. It’s just something to buy time while you (hopefully) figure it out. Maybe the Thunder do just need a month with a healthy roster and they can get it sorted out. They have the players still. They have the talent. They just haven’t had the wins. Which is, you know, kind of the important part.