Five thoughts on Nick Collison’s extension

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Nick Collison signed a somewhat surprising two-year, $7.5 million extension with the Thunder on Tuesday. Five big thoughts as what’s going on here:

1. Loyalty. Pretty straightforward, this is largely a legacy deal for Collison. He’s been a bedrock member of the organization since 2003, a foundational core piece that has seen multiple general managers, coaches, players and even cities. He’s the constant of the franchise, someone that has been equally committed to the team as it is to him.

Yeah, yeah, but Collison is 34, had offseason knee surgery and is averaging career-lows basically across the board. How does this help the Thunder win a CHAMPIONSHIP huh huh?

That’s certainly a valid counterpoint, cliche internet Thunder fan. Two guaranteed years totaling $7.5 million is a hefty price tag for a guy that’s going to be 36 when his deal is up. Collison will be making more than Marreese Speights next season, but that’s the nature of playing up a contract. Speights wasn’t a bargain when he was signed. He’s become one, and will get paid in the future because of it. Plus, veteran power forwards still make good money in the NBA. Did you know Jordan Hill is making $9 million this season? That Jason Thompson is getting $6.1 million? That Brandon Bass is getting $6.9 million? That Trevor Booker is making $5 million?

But here’s the real message: Guess when Collison is signed through? The 2016-17 season. That puts him guaranteed to be on the roster (ignoring trade potential, obviously) with Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka for that season. The only core player that’s not is… Kevin Durant, and you can be sure he got the point today when the news broke. The Thunder back their people. If you’re with them, they’re with you. Just look at the way Durant reacted today on Twitter, first with a tweet of congratulations, then another going after a stupidhead that doubted Collison’s worth. Durant loves Nick Collison.

On the floor, Collison may not even come close to earning that nearly $4 million per. He’s not quite the influential plus/minus maven he once was (he’s still 27th among power forwards in Defensive Real Plus/Minus, ahead of David Lee, Pau Gasol, Terrence Jones and Derrick Favors). If things progress as anticipated, Mitch McGary may be getting most of his minutes next season. But the Thunder want to do their best to make Collison — and a few other select players — understand their commitment to them. Remember: Collison worked with the team to structure a unique extension in 2010 that has helped them avoid the luxury tax. In some ways, they owed him a favor.

The Thunder were the ones that pushed to make this deal happen. They approached Collison, they presented the offer. They wanted him to remain part of what they’ve built. I think that message speaks pretty loudly.

2. Say it with me: new TV contract. When you’re looking at things in the prism of “two years, $7.5 million,” you can’t see it in today’s dollars. You have to see it in future NBA/salary cap monopoly money. The cap is set to balloon and teams are going to see added cash flow hitting their bottom lines. It’s hard to really compare, but if Collison had signed this deal two years ago, it probably would’ve looked more like $5 million over two years.

3. The tax man is coming. All that said, the Thunder are almost assuredly going to be taxpayers come 2015-16. They may sneak out from under it this season with a few deadline deals, but it seems unlikely considering the front office is still aggressively pursuing trades that bring salary in, not send it out.

This has been the plan all along, the one so many have seemed to either misunderstand or just altogether ignore. The Thunder are putting their championship window eggs in a risky basket, one that requires the signature of Durant in 2016. In staunchly avoiding the tax the past few seasons, the Thunder won’t be face the deathly repeater tax come 2016 when they’re looking to re-sign Durant. (Refresher: In 2015-16, you’re a repeat offender if you’ve been in the luxury tax three of the last four seasons. Instead of a $1.50 penalty, it jumps to $2.50 for anything between $1 and $4,999,999 over. An extremely stiff penalty.)

If — if! — the Thunder finish this season in the tax, that’s one year in. Next season would probably make year two, though they only have $72 million committed to 12 players. This season’s tax threshold was at $76 million, and it’s expected to jump again this summer. They could conceivably wiggle out of it, but I think the Thunder are in an addition mode, not a subtraction one. I don’t think that means big free agent spending, but if the right players comes available through the trade market, they aren’t going to balk on contract baggage.

The Thunder aren’t diving into the tax for the fun of it. It’s part of their roster building plan, and it’s not like they’ve overpaid Collison as a gesture to reinforce they’ve got deep pockets and are willing to spend. But they aren’t terrified of it either, which is a narrative that’s built the past few years. They’re in the tax right now; where’s the parade for it? Wasn’t that supposed to guarantee a championship?

4. What does the Thunder roster look like without Collison? First of all, I shudder to picture him playing for someone else, sliding in to take a charge on Russell Westbrook. Actually, I need a minute to go throw up.

But remove Collison this summer, and the Thunder’s oldest player under contract for next season would be Anthony Morrow who is currently 29. Youth is great, but the Thunder also have severely lacked in adequate veterans to police the roster. For as annoying as Derek Fisher high-butting his way to 30 minutes a night was, he had a real value to the team, primarily off the floor. Which leads to…

5. What’s been one of the biggest perceived reasons the Thunder have had difficulties this season? Chemistry seems to be a possible answer. The Thunder locker room has grown a little disjointed as the season has gotten rocky, and while copping out by saying “intangibles” is often an insult to any basketball-watching novice, Collison’s voice certainly carries weight. Basketball players are humans, not statistical robots. They need things like direction and leadership. It matters. And Collison’s a pros pro, a walking example to other young players in the value of understanding and playing a role, and not overstepping the boundaries of individual selfishness.

Collison represents the Thunder culture both on and off the floor. He’s the walking, breathing, talking version of the team’s identity — character, commitment, work ethic, professionalism, humility, unselfishness. If you’re not going to back him, then how can you expect players to in the future?