Getting back on schedule

Christina House/LA Times

So, the Thunder are healthy again after just a month of the season has passed, but them constant talking point around them is if their playoff lives are in jeopardy. They’re 5-13, which is terrible, and to make it all worse, they play in the West.

Check this: Seven of the eight current playoff teams in the West have won seven of their last 10 games. It’s not if the Thunder can start winning games; it’s if they do, can they still gain ground on the West?

Truth is, things will begin to balance a little more as more West teams play each other and the assault on the lower half of the East starts to flatten out some. Still: It might take 50 wins to get in. And we’ve all played the numbers out over and over again — as it stands today, the Thunder need to go 45-19 the rest of the way for 50. That’s .703 basketball, which is really good.

The team itself is anything but panicked. When I asked Russell Westbrook about it after the Pelicans game, you could see the annoyance level rising in him. The fact this is even being brought up has players visibly irked. But you can’t ignore the facts. The Thunder didn’t win near as many games as they expected to and put themselves in a difficult position even with their full-strength roster.

But let’s look at the schedule. We all keep saying the same things — the Thunder win 72 percent of their games when Westbrook and Durant play, they’ll be fine, they’ll get in — but in the same way they actually have to start winning games. With them eight games under, I don’t know if you’re like me, but I keep looking at the record and just counting up wins and even after a four-game winning streak, they’re still 9-13. How long will it be until this thing could conceivably start looking good again?

Let’s take it 10 at a time:

Next 10 games: at Philadelphia, at Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland, at Minnesota, Phoenix, at Sacramento, at Golden State, at LA Lakers, New Orleans

Necessary result: 9-1. The Thunder’s chance to get this thing back on track is presented to them right away. Of the next 10 games, they have four at home, and only one definitely difficult road game (Warriors). The Cavs are a bit of an enigma themselves, and maybe I should leave some wiggle room for another Pelicans-like debacle, but the next three are absolutely need-to-win games. If the Thunder can go 9-1 — which I think they’re absolutely capable of doing here — they’re 14-14 on Dec. 21, before Christmas. If they’re 8-2, which is more realistic, they’re 13-15.

Next 10: Portland, at San Antonio, Charlotte, at Dallas, Phoenix, Washington, at Golden State, at Sacramento, Utah, at Houston

Necessary result: 6-4. This is a tough follow-up stretch of games. If the Thunder are functioning back at their typical level, they’re completely capable of going 7-3. The problem here is, they could also go something like 4-6, which would be extremely deflating. If they’re 6-4 in this run, they’d be 20-18, with a little more than half the season to go.

Next 10: Golden State, at Orlando, at Miami, at Washington, at Atlanta, at Cleveland, Minnesota, at New York, at Memphis, Orlando

Necessary result: 7-3. Go ahead and lock up the game in D.C. as a loss, but other than that and the Memphis game (and maybe the Cleveland one, too), these are all very winnable games. A lot of us — myself included — have assumed the Thunder would reel off 12 or 15 wins in a row to get back in this thing. But as I’m going through the schedule, that seems tough to do. I think the road back will have to be a bit more methodical than that. Go 7-3 here, and they’re 27-21 on Feb. 2. Last season on Feb. 2, the Mavs were, you guessed it, 27-21.

Next 10: at New Orleans, New Orleans, LA Clippers, at Denver, Memphis, Dallas, at Charlotte, Denver, Indiana, at Phoenix

Necessary result: 8-2. The Thunder we’ve been used to seeing the last few years, you could go ahead and pencil in wins at home against teams like the Clippers and Grizzlies and Mavericks. Maybe because of it’s the last month of losing, but for some reason I don’t have the same confidence. Maybe I’m just cynical because of the recency. Still: If the Thunder are going to make the postseason and be the kind of contender they can be, going 8-2 could and should happen. They’d be 35-23 now, well back within the West playoff picture.

Next 10: at Portland, at LA Lakers, Philadelphia, at Chicago, Toronto, LA Clippers, Minnesota, Chicago, at Dallas, Boston

Necessary result: 6-4. Here’s the thing about the position the Thunder are in: They can’t just assume beating the teams they should will take care of it all. They’re going to have to beat a lot of good teams. Not average or even above average ones. They need to win a lot of games against the elites. That’s a tough spot to be in. Go 6-4 here, and they’re 41-27 on March 18. The Mavs were… 41-27 on March 18 last season.

Next 10: Atlanta, Miami, LA Lakers, at San Antonio, at Utah, at Phoenix, Dallas, at Memphis, Houston, San Antonio

Necessary result: 7-3. This is probably going to be the most critical stretch of the season. Well, assuming they get back in this and are somewhere around 40 wins like I think they’ll be. Every game is going to count for the Thunder; there won’t be any nights off. The Pelicans game from Tuesday is their one excused loss because of the reintegration of things, but they can’t be doing that kind of stuff much. If they’re 7-3 here, now they’re 48-30 with four to go, all four very winnable.

Next four: Sacramento, at Indiana, Portland, at Minnesota

Necessary result: 3-1. Amazing to think the Thunder’s final four games could be extremely important for something other than the No. 1 seed. But here they are. If they go 3-1 here, they finish 51-31. That means they would’ve gone 46-18 the rest of the way, which is .718 basketball. Which is just about what they play with Westbrook and Durant.

After going through the next 64 games, my biggest takeaway is this: The next 10 games are the most important of the season. Until the 10 after that. And the 10 after that…