Ignore the Screams: Why Durant won’t sign an extension with the Thunder
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On Monday morning, Kevin Durant was doing good work. He was at North Highland Elementary in Oklahoma City christening a new basketball court funded by his foundation and Nike. He also preached the importance of outdoor activities to the smartphone and video game-addicted youth of today. This is no small thing and is yet another example of how Durant has given back so much to the Oklahoma City metro community.
In a perfect world, this would have been the headline story for the day and the first thing you’d see upon visiting any news site. Unfortunately, one annoyed ESPN pundit managed to easily blow that story aside.
There’s no point in trying to rationalize the rantings of Stephen A. Smith. Once a respected journalist, he’s now seen by many as merely a character. In my humble opinion, he’s in the same mold as his “First Take” co-host Skip Bayless, Rush Limbaugh, Chris Matthews, Bill Simmons, and numerous other media personalities. They are popular because they make noise. And make no mistake: these folks are wildly popular and successful. I’m not, so clearly they are doing something right.
Ignoring the likes of Smith is standard operating procedure for me. But I saw one bit of text from him that lit a fire inside me. While trying to justify his report that Durant would consider the Los Angeles Lakers as a free agent (how deep did he have to penetrate Durant’s inner circle to unearth that nugget of info?), Smith spewed the following:
“I’m hearing L.A. is a prime spot. I’m not lying. If I were wrong, Kevin Durant would have signed his extension with OKC.”
Let’s tackle this, shall we?
Durant is under contract for the 2015-16 season for $20,158,622. That’s set in stone and won’t change. Beyond that, Durant has several options.
He certainly could sign an extension with the Thunder. He’s been eligible to sign an extension ever since July of 2014. He could sign an extension anytime between now and June 30, 2016. It’s super unlikely to happen, and it has nothing to do with his feelings toward the city of Oklahoma City or the Thunder organization.
Were Durant eager to sign an extension, it could only be for up to three additional seasons. The most Durant could earn in the first year of such an extension (covering the 2016-17 season) would be $21.67 million. Add it up, and the most Durant could get via an extension is a little under $70 million over three seasons.
However, as many salary cap nerds have been hyperventilating about (takes puff from inhaler), the salary cap is on the verge of erupting. The salary cap for the upcoming season is $70 million. Early estimates have it rising to at least $90 million in 2016-17, and possibly jumping to $108 million in 2017-18. For comparison, the salary cap in both the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons was $58.044 million. The salary cap grew by less than $12 million over 5 years, and it could take two single season leaps larger than that. And oh by the way, maximum salaries are tied to the salary cap.
If Durant enters free agency (and thus become eligible for the larger maximum salary), be it for one minute or one month; be it to re-sign with the Thunder or flee elsewhere, his first year salary could be more than $25 million. At last check, that number is larger than $21.67 million. Signing an extension would cost Durant at least $3.5 to $4 million per season. He could sign a five year deal worth around $145 million to stay in Oklahoma City, or a 4 year deal worth around $107 million elsewhere.
It gets more complicated than that. For more detail, read my recent contribution to NewsOK.
Under the current rules, Durant would be eligible for a larger maximum salary in 2017. Using the estimated $108 million salary cap figure, Durant could be eligible to earn approximately $35.6 million in the first year of a new deal that summer. The rules could be radically different or mostly the same by then, so any numbers for this timeframe should be considered very theoretical. But if the numbers and rules stay mostly intact, he could sign for up to five seasons with Oklahoma City and net over $200 million.
Many informed observers have opined that Durant may take a short deal in order to re-enter free agency in 2017 in order to reap the most benefit available to him. And if that’s what Durant wants, he should do it. In case you haven’t noticed, he’s kind of worth it.
Normally, refuting personalities isn’t worth the time. However, some folks take their garble as gospel so it’s important to take Jon Stewart’s advice and… well you know.
