Killer and Killing Lineups: Early trends

The Thunder have played 18 games out of 82. That’s 22 percent of the season. Math says it’s still early.

And six of those were without Kevin Durant. So in terms of evaluating this team, we kind of only have 12 games to work with.

Still: Some of Billy Donovan’s preferred lineups are starting to take shape, with a few trends, both positive and negative, emerging. One of which that the Thunder play really well when Russell Westbrook or Durant are on the floor. Especially when they both are, at the same time. Shocking, I know.

ESPN.com’s Kevin Arnovitz is the connoisseur of the “Killer Lineup,” combinations of players that take over games and obliterate opponents. A few killer lineup trends to watch as the Thunder near the quarter mark of the season (all via NBA.com/stats):

Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka and Adams: ORtg 102.4, DRtg 92.9, Net +9.5

The starting five. Far and away the most used lineup clocking in with 159 minutes in 12 games played together. Next closest lineup is at 48 minutes and that one includes Kyle Singler. For all the grief Andre Roberson gets, he consistently finds himself in some of the Thunder’s best lineups, including the starting five. The first five basically had these same numbers last season in the limited run it got through Durant’s injuries and it’s still producing nicely. Monday’s terrible performance against the Hawks notwithstanding.

Westbrook, Waiters, Durant, Ibaka and Kanter: ORtg 153.4, DRtg 102.9, Net +50.5

This group has played 33 minutes together in 10 games. And man, it’s some kind of a dominant offensive group, as it should be. Defensively, it would rank 24th in the league, but far and away No. 1 — yes, even better than the Warriors, somehow — as an offensive unit. So this kind of breaks through some of the assumption that you can’t have a successful basketball lineup featuring Dion Waiters or Enes Kanter but here’s the thing about this one: It features both! Now, the dirty little secret with these lineups is that anything that includes Westbrook, Durant and Ibaka tends to be pretty good. When that trio in on the floor, the Thunder have a net rating of plus-14.7 in 322 minutes.

Augustin, Waiters, Morrow, Collison and Kanter: ORtg 86.5, DRtg 108.4, Net -21.9

So this one isn’t a Killer Lineup. It’s a Killing The Team Lineup. The all-bench unit has played 35 minutes together in six games and has just been horrible. The only lineup that could be worse than it is probably five Kyle Singlers. The issue with it here is that Kanter isn’t able to carry the offense as anticipated, and defensively it’s a complete travesty. This follows an early developing trend: Kanter’s offensive rating with Westbrook on the floor with him: 120.8. With Westbrook off: 98.4. So… that leads to…

Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka and Kanter: ORtg 152.4, DRtg 88.3, Net +64.1

Kanter with the starters, replacing Adams. Not many minutes to really evaluate this (17 in four games), but it does sort of begin to confirm some early suspicions that the Thunder may actually be more effective overall with Kanter starting. The theory is simple: Kanter stinks defensively (though he is a little better this season) so playing him alongside better perimeter defenders along with Ibaka’s weakside bailout protection covers him. Plus, it adds Steven Adams to the defensively abysmal second unit, which desperately needs a rim protector. Now, if you’re wondering, Adams with the second unit has barely happened, with three minutes in two games. It has been good in that time, though: 116.7 offensive, 82.0 defensive with a net of plus-34.7.

Westbrook, Morrow, Waiters, Durant and Ibaka: ORtg 141.8, DRtg 91.4, Net +50.4

The Thunder’s preferred smallball unit has played 20 minutes together in five games. Against the Hawks on Monday, it was the spark that closed a 16-point deficit to one to end the first half with an 18-3 run over the final three minutes. Where it’s most effective is obvious: It’s super good offensively. The thing about it is most teams are going to counter this by either going small themselves or if they stay big, try and hide that extra big on Morrow. But you can’t leave Morrow an eyelash of space or he’ll hit a 3. Defensively, it’s solid because the Thunder can switch 1-through-5 with it. Ibaka is one of the league’s best bigs at covering a small. The weak link is Morrow, who opposing teams will try to isolate in a switch, but that means screening with another small which isn’t ideal.

Augustin, Waiters, Durant, Collison and Kanter: ORtg 139.4, DRtg 101.2, Net +38.2

Westbrook, Waiters, Morrow, Collison and Kanter: ORtg 127.5, DRtg 86.2, Net +41.2

These are the “staggered” lineups, with Durant playing with the bench guys, and then Westbrook playing with them. As you can see, not bad. Here’s the catch, though: Durant has only played 10 minutes over five games with that group, and Westbrook just nine minutes over four games.

Supposedly, Billy Donovan was going to focus a bit more on staggering Westbrook and Durant this season, but that hasn’t really happened. Durant has played 422 minutes total so far; 369 of them have been with Westbrook (87 percent). Last season, Durant played just 200 of his 913 minutes without Westbrook (78 percent). Donovan isn’t staggering much, and if anything, less than Scott Brooks did before him. Maybe he’s trying to build his bench early in the season and will do more of that later. The counter here is that the more you rest Durant and Westbrook together, the more you can play them together and when they do, the Thunder are awesome — 115.2 offensive rating, 98.1 defensive, a net of 17.0.

That was the plan in attempting to deepen the bench, but, well, that hasn’t exactly worked out. The Thunder are deeper, but in terms of having a bench unit that can consistently sustain itself through games, that’s just not happening. Some nights, sure. But it’s a roll of the dice, and often dependent on how good (or really how bad) the opponent’s second group is.