Limping to the line: How they’ll finish

The playoffs are locked up and the lottery teams are set. The season is nearly over and we’re very close to having a completely clear image of who will have the most ping-pong balls come the draft lottery. Right now, Oklahoma City sits as the fourth worst (or if you’re an optimist, 26th best) team in the league, with an 11.9 percent chance of winning. And while all these teams have nothing to win, they do have a lot of reason to lose. There’s some pretty tight races heading to the finish of who will get how many ping-pong balls. So what’s the final standings shaping up to look like?

Sacramento Kings: 16-64
Currently: 30th, 25 percent chance
Games remaining: at Denver, at Minnesota
Projected finish: 30th, 16-66. They’ve already locked it up. No breaking this down. And they’ll lose their last two anyway.

Los Angeles Clippers: 19-61
Currently: t-29th, 17.7 percent chance
Games remaining: at Utah, Oklahoma City
Projected finish: 29th, 20-62 The Clips will most certainly lose in Utah, dropping them to 19-62, but should beat the Thunder at home (where they’ve already beaten OKC handily once). Currently, they are tied with the Wizards for the second worst record with identical tallies of 19-61 and the two teams split the season series. (Lottery rules state that if two teams are tied, then they split the average amount of combinations. Just FYI.)

Washington Wizards: 19-61
Currently: t-29th, 17.7 percent chance
Games remaining: Toronto, at Boston
Projected finish: 28th, 20-62. With Gilbert Arenas returning the Wiz have played a bit better. The Raptors stink on the road and every team likes to win their home closer. Doubtful they win in Boston though. Looks like we’re heading for a tie at the 29th spot. That is, unless OKC can “upset” the Clips Wednesday.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 22-58
Currently: 27th, 11.9 percent chance
Games remaining: at Portland, at LA Clippers
Projected finish: 27th, 22-60. Really unless the Thunder goes crazy and win both their last games, I think they’re slotted at 27th. It’s possible to jump the Grizzlies if they lose twice and OKC wins twice, but looking at the schedule, that’s unlikely. Of course, they could tie each other. The Thunder can’t increase their chances at all seeing as the Wizards and Clips both have 19 wins and can’t catch OKC’s 22 with two to go. So at worst (or best, this is all so confusing), the Thunder will finish 27th with the potential to move up to 25th.

Memphis Grizzlies: 23-57
Currently: 26th, 8.8 percent chance
Games remaining: at Phoenix, Atlanta
Projected finish: 26th, 23-59 The Grizzlies could very well beat Phoenix, just because the Suns are done and look to kind of be cashing in their chips. Atlanta appears to be focused getting ready to head into the playoffs and it’s unlikely they’ll slip. As is, the Grizzlies could move up to 25th with two wins and two Minny losses, or could drop to 27th if they lose twice and OKC wins twice. Unlikely. So look for the Grizz to stay right at 26th.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 24-56
Currently: 25th, 6.3 percent chance
Games remaining: at Dallas, Sacramento
Projected finish: 25th, 25-57. Like all these bad teams, the Wolves are awful on the road and will likely lose to Dallas. But winning against Sacramento will seal their fate as the 25th best team in the league as OKC can’t catch them.

Golden State Warriors: 29-51
Currently: 24th, 4.3 percent chance
Games remaining: San Antonio, at Phoenix
Projected finish: 24th, 29-53. The Warriors are as low as they can go. But they could potentially move up as much as two slots if they win out (unlikely) and the Knicks and Raptors lose out (also unlikely). Beating the Spurs at home is more likely than beating the Suns on the road though (GSW is 8-30 on the road, 21-21 at home).

New York Knicks: 31-50
Currently: 23rd, 2.8 percent chance
Games remaining: New Jersey
Projected finish: 22nd, 32-50. The Knicks have just one game remaining and that’s at home. They are a half game worse than the Raptors right now, but have a very winnable game while the Raptors have two lose-able road games to finish the season.

Toronto Raptors: 31-49
Currently: 22nd, 1.7 percent chance
Games remaining: at Washington, at Chicago
Projected finish: 23rd, 31-49. The Knicks could lose at home to the Nets and the Raptors win one of these two and the current standings will hold. I think that’s unlikely, seeing as how bad Toronto has been on the road this year.

Milwaukee Bucks: 33-47
Currently: t-21st, 0.95 percent chance
Games remaining: Orlando, at Indiana
Projected finish: 21st, 33-49. The Bucks shouldn’t beat either of these teams, as they’re poor on the road and Orlando is looking for good mojo heading into the playoffs. Right now they’re tied with the Nets, but New Jersey has a winnable homer against Charlotte. It is very possible these teams wind up tied. But this far down the line, what’s four more ping-pong balls really going to matter?

New Jersey Nets: 33-47
Currently: t-21st, 0.95 percent chance
Games remaining: Charlotte, at New York
Projected finish: 20th, 34-48. Winning at home against a deflated Charlotte team seems reasonable. And with the Bucks having two semi-difficult games left, I think it makes sense for the Nets to finish on top.

Charlotte Bobcats: 35-45
Currently: t-19th, 0.65 percent chance
Games remaining: at New Jersey, at Orlando
Projected finish: 19th, 35-47. Here’s where it could get slightly interesting. The Bobcats should probably lose their last two. But if the Nets win out (or heck if the Bucks did too), we could have a three-way log jam for slot No. 21.

Indiana Pacers: 35-45
Currently: t-19th, 0.65 percent chance
Games remaining: Cleveland, Milwaukee
Projected finish: We can’t have four teams tied with 35 wins because the Bucks and Pacers play. I’m betting the Pacers win at home to lock up their spot with 36 wins. But they could still be tied with the Bobcats who could win in Ner Jersey. I think the Bobcats lose out and Indy claims No. 18 to themselves.

Phoenix Suns: 44-36
Currently: 17th, 0.5 percent chance
Games remaining: Memphis, Golden State
Projected finish: 17th, 46-36. What’s it matter, they’re stuck where they’re at. But they do have some influence with teams below them with home games against Memphis and Golden State. Thunder fans should be rooting for the Suns to play poorly to let the Grizzlies lock away that 26th spot so OKC doesn’t have to worry about it.