Look at these cool Thunder shot charts

Since the hiring of Billy Donovan I’ve been trying to imagine what a Scott Brooks-less Thunder team might look like. Donovan is already getting me excited about his changes on both ends. Spacing? Pacing? Sharing the ball? Defending the three point line?!

Still one of the biggest questions with this Thunder team is, how will all these guys play together, specifically with Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka? We all know Durant didn’t play at all post Enes Kanter trade, so what will the offense look like with everyone on the floor? We won’t know exactly for a few weeks, but in the meantime here are some shot charts that simulates what this team, with the big three, may look like on the floor together.

These charts are obviously not from actual minutes played together, but a simulation based on individual shot charts. All the charts were created by my friends in Italy Michele Berra (@MikyBerra) and Nick Ramone (@nickramone), and their work is fantastic. Look for more charts like those below this season from them. Now let’s take a look at the offensive juggernaut that is the 2015-2016 Thunder.

There is clearly a lot of information here, but it shows one thing for sure: A lineup of Russell Westbrook, Anthony Morrow, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Enes Kanter is nearly impossible to stop on offense. The corners and the right wing are red hot from three, and will likely increase in volume this season according to Donovan.

Russell Westbrook furiously attacking and creating for the three headed three point shooting monster of KD, Serge, and Morrow is almost more than I can handle. When you add the fact that you have a center in Enes Kanter that can actually catch, finish and draw attention from the defense, you are talking about a truly unstoppable force. Will that unstoppable force be able to stop other teams? That I am not sure of yet. You clearly have one of the best defenders in the league in Ibaka and a quality defender in Durant, but the other 3 have not proven to genuinely help on that end. Obviously Russ has the ability, but he still needs to put it all together.

The standard for Enes and Morrow on that end this season will be, “Please just try”. This lineup is intriguing but I have a hard time seeing it as the most played lineup for the Thunder, even though it looks really fun.

When you replace Enes Kanter with Steven Adams, the chart doesn’t change too much. Their effective field goal percentage is slightly worse, but not enough to make you heavily favor Kanter. Adams allows Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka to do what they do best, while he does the dirty work. The space and shooting ability Morrow provides is going to be so important. You will see in other charts the difference he makes on the court.

Defensively you have to favor this group over the one above, but overall Adams might be a little overrated that end. Playing next to Enes Kanter can do that for a guy. This is another dynamic group that I can see getting a lot of minutes together, and likely closing games.

SMALL BALL! The volume of threes increases, and the three point percentage doesn’t drop too much. If Singler can be the guy he was in Detroit, or even better the guy Sam Presti thinks he is, this could be a good option for small ball. I think having Roberson in place of either Singler or Morrow makes sense as well. Giving Durant and Westbrook room to operate is crucial and having those three perimeter shooters in the game would certainly do that.

The dynamic and unstoppable Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook pick and roll game would be lethal with Ibaka, Morrow, and Singler on the wings. We may see a lineup similar to this more than Thunder fans are expecting.

Everyone welcome Andre Roberson and his airballs to the shot charts! As much as I love Roberson’s defense, he just really hurts the team on the offensive end. He needs to be able to hit those corner three’s, be used differently, or just play spot minutes. None of those results would surprise me at this point. He will get the nod as the starting 2, and it makes sense.

Development has always been a huge thing for the Thunder, and they are hoping for a 2011-2012 Thabo miracle for Roberson this year. He has the ability to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but he could easily be taken out of a game by an opponent if he doesn’t develop his spot up corner three. (See Tony Allen vs. the Warriors.)

This is the projected starting lineup for the Thunder, at least this is what I expect. It leaves a lot to be desired when looking at this shot chart. I really think this is where Billy Donovan comes in. All these shots were under Scott Brooks and his system.

Obviously any coach can make Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka into a top 10 offensive team, but can Donovan maximize the talent of this group? That is a concept he has been emphasized throughout training camp. We mentioned Roberson’s shortcomings above, so I don’t need to repeat, but there need to be some changes. This is most likely OKC’s best lineup on both ends. They can compete at a high level defensively and still have the chance to be special scoring the ball. Look for this lineup to soak up a lot of minutes.

DION WAITERS IN THE HOUSE! This is the first time we don’t see any red on the shot chart so far. I’m looking through the faces in the bottom right corner and only see one fresh face, and that is my man Dion. There are players like Durant, Lebron, Steve Nash, and Chris Paul who have prided themselves on making their teammates better… and Dion… well…. Just see the chart above.

This will be one of the many challenges this season for Billy Donovan. What is the best way to use Dion Waiters, and is the answer to the question maybe not at all? I don’t want to close the book on Waiters, but he has a lot to prove this season. He is in a contract year and has some NBA skills. My view is he does not fit with this lineup at all because he is not a spot up shooter. If he does have a place on this team, it is off the bench in a more ball dominant role.

I don’t want to touch on this graph too much, but this is where you actually see some value in the presence of Enes Kanter. The floor absolutely shrinks with this lineup. With Dion Waiters and a non scoring big it is difficult to see this lineup getting time this season. Some have brought up the idea of this being the starting lineup, and I don’t completely fault them for their line of thinking. This lineup just doesn’t give you an opportunity to be elite on either end and it certainly does not maximize the players on the floor. I think Donovan will know better than to give this group significant time.
These were all numbers from last year. As we know following the Thunder; players change for better or worse, shots can fall more consistently, and we have no clue exactly how Donovan will use these players. The spacing will be different. The shot selection will change, and hopefully we will see more fluid passing.

In a pivotal year for the Thunder there is one thing that is clear: they have options. Several good options at that. It will be difficult to screw this up. Donovan seems like an innovative coach and these charts will certainly look different this season. The Thunder have three elite players in their starting lineup, and who surrounds them is really important. Lucky for Billy Donovan he has several good options.