Playoff matchupability: How the Thunder lines up in the West

I think we can start talking about this stuff now, right? John Hollinger says we’re pretty much a lock.

But seeing as I’ve never had an NBA team that I actively root for in the postseason, I don’t really know exactly what it’s like. But I’ve heard things. It’s about poise. It’s about quality coaching. It’s about matchups. And often times, that last thing is really all that matters. How do you match up with your opponent?

And right now, while I’m going to be thrilled just to be rooting in late April for something other than ping-pong balls, I’d kind of like to see Oklahoma City perform well in the playoffs. A month ago, I thought it would be neat just to get there as the eight-seed and get swept by the Lakers. I would have been fine with that. Now? I’m looking at a top five seed and the potential to get out of the first round and do realistic damage. This team is good enough. The pieces are there. But so much comes down to the matchups.

So who does Oklahoma City have a favorable draw against? Who does the Thunder match up well with? We are starting to get a pretty clear picture of the Western Conference playoff situation and OKC’s got 19 games left in the season to either improve or hurt its current seed. So who do we want to see? I’ve devised a crude little formula to try and figure exactly that out.

My Matchupability Rating: Obviously there’s record against the team. The average scoring margin against the team. Average points allowed (OKC is 9-17 when allowing 100+) and average points scored (OKC is 28-3 when scoring 100+). Also, rebounding margin (the Thunder is much better when outrebounding opponents), Russell Westbrook’s assist average (OKC is 13-4 when he has 10+ assists), Kevin Durant’s scoring average (the team will rely on KD’s scoring, obviously) and whether not they have someone to defend Durant and Nenad Krstic’s points per game (OKC is 22-3 when he scores 10+). Plus, I added a few points in for if the team has a dominant inside presence (something OKC struggles with), whether the team is equally athletic (OKC does better against lesser athletic squads) and whether the team is a defensively or offensively focused team (OKC does better against offensively focused squads). I then worked it all together in a cock-eyed formula. Here are my FAILPROOF findings.

Current seed: 1
Oklahoma City’s record against: 0-3
Points for: 97.0
Points against: 104.3
Margin: -7.3
Rebounding Margin: -1.3
Westbrook Distribution: 9.0 apg
Durant Defendability: 25.6 ppg (Ron Artest)
Krstic Factor: 4.0 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside
Game Focus: Balanced
Athleticism Factor: Equal

Matchupability Rating: 30.6

The Lakers are clearly the Thunder’s toughest matchup. They are probably the league’s best team and anyone will have issues with them. The good news is, OKC has crawled out of eighth and continues to do a good job of positioning itself as far away as it can from the Lakers. There are other tough matchups for the Thunder, but this is the worst. If the Thunder were to slip to eighth and get the Lakers, it’s likely we’d be hoping for a single win in our maiden playoff voyage. The inside ability of Bynum and Gasol would crunch OKC in a seven-game series. The Thunder has a potential Kobe Stopper in Thabo Sefolosha and Kevin Durant could maybe steal a game or two, but I wouldn’t bet on OKC advancing.

Chance of advancing: 25 percent

Current seed: 2
Oklahoma City’s record against: 1-2
Points for: 94.3
Points against: 95.0
Margin: -0.7
Rebounding Margin: +4.0
Westbrook Distribution: 6.3 apg
Durant Defendability: 22.3 ppg (Shawn Marion)
Krstic Factor: 6.0 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside-Out
Game Focus: Mostly Offensive
Athleticism Factor: Advantage OKC

Matchupability Rating: 42.2

Oklahoma City actually matches up semi well with Dallas. The Mavericks are older and not as athletic. The Thunder are versatile and can run and jump. OKC defends Dallas really well, but the factor in the series would be holding Dirk down. And the Thunder don’t really have a Dirk stopper. Shawn Marion has defended Kevin Durant really well and the Mavericks are a seasoned, veteran team. It would be a tough series for the Thunder despite the seemingly favorable matchups.

Chance of advancing: 40 percent

Current seed: 3
Oklahoma City’s record against: 1-2
Points for: 94.6
Points against: 101.6
Margin: -7.0
Rebounding Margin: +1.6
Westbrook Distribution: 6.6 apg
Durant Defendability: 27.0 ppg (Carmelo Anthony)
Krstic Factor: 4.3 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside-Out
Game Focus: Offensive
Athleticism Factor: Equal

Matchupability Rating: 30.8

I fear the Nuggets. Oklahoma City just does not seem to play well against them, especially in Denver. But this would be a marquee playoff series. Durant vs. Melo would likely make this the can’t-miss opening round series. And I think the Thunder could steal a game or two. I said earlier that Oklahoma City typically has more issues with a defensive-minded team than offensive, but the Nuggets are almost all offense and OKC hasn’t been able to hold them down. I could see the Thunder getting swept or maybe pushing this to six great games. Tough to say. But i don’t think the Thunder would advance. I’m not suggesting it or advocating for it to actually happen, but if the Nuggets and Thunder are destined to lock up in the first round, would it be better for OKC to maybe drop a game or two and fall into seventh and therefore get the Jazz, a much more favorable matchup? Just thinking out loud.

Chance of advancing: 30 percent

Current seed: 4
Oklahoma City’s record against: 2-0
Points for: 95.5
Points against: 90.0
Margin: +5.5
Rebounding Margin: -4.0
Westbrook Distribution: 6.5 apg
Durant Defendability: 29.5 ppg (Andrei Kirilenko)
Krstic Factor: 9.0 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside
Game Focus: Balanced
Athleticism Factor: Advantage OKC

Matchupability Rating: 56.5

This honestly might be the Thunder’s most favorable first round matchup. The Jazz are an excellent offensive team, but they play slow, deliberate basketball. They aren’t extremely athletic and they often struggle with teams that are. Oklahoma City can has people to defend their top scorers and the Jazz really don’t have a guy that has frustrated Kevin Durant. It would be ideal for OKC to move up to fifth (or fourth) and get Utah. And that’s a strong possibility especially since technically the Thunder’s tied for fifth right now with Phoenix.

Chance of advancing: 65 percent

Current seed: 5
Oklahoma City’s record against: 1-1
Points for: 109.5
Points against: 108.5
Margin: +1.0
Rebounding Margin: 0.0
Westbrook Distribution: 8.5 apg
Durant Defendability: 37.0 ppg (Grant Hill)
Krstic Factor: 7.5 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside-Out
Game Focus: Offensive
Athleticism Factor: Advantage OKC

Matchupability Rating: 59.0

Phoenix would be an interesting matchup. What makes them so tough is that the Thunder really don’t have an answer for Amare Stoudemire. What doesn’t though, is the Suns don’t have anyone to guard Kevin Durant. You’d think OKC would have a leg up because typically defensive-minded teams win playoff series. Just ask the Suns about playing San Antonio. I think this would be a good series for the Thunder because Steve Nash can’t guard Russell Westbrook, nobody can defend Durant and even Jeff Green has had nice offensive nights against Phoenix. We know the Thunder can play defense and it would just be a matter of stopping the Suns just enough. But I could see this going seven and when that happens, it’s a toss up.

Chance of advancing: 50 percent

Current seed: 7
Oklahoma City’s record against: 1-2
Points for: 98.6
Points against: 100.6
Margin: -2.0
Rebounding Margin: +0.6
Westbrook Distribution: 10.3 apg
Durant Defendability: 27.0 ppg (Richard Jefferson)
Krstic Factor: 6.3 ppg

Offensive Focus: Inside
Game Focus: Defense
Athleticism Factor: Advantage OKC

Matchupability Rating: 40.5

I think the Spurs are a good matchup for the Thunder. They are playoff savvy and have the kind of veteran players that can turn it on in a seven game series. But the Thunder can frustrate teams with their energy and length. And the Spurs are exactly that kind of team. Kevin Durant doesn’t have a defender to worry about too much, Russell Westbrook does well against Tony Parker and OKC has won in San Antonio over the past two years a few times. But what’s scary is that the Spurs can lock down on you, Tim Duncan is always a candidate to own a series and intangible guys like Manu Ginobili almost always come up big in the postseason. This would be a pretty tough series for the Thunder.

Chance of advancing: 40 percent

Current seed: 8
Oklahoma City’s record against: 1-1
Points for: 81.5
Points against: 80.0
Margin: +1.5
Rebounding Margin: -3.5
Westbrook Distribution: 4.5 apg
Durant Defendability: 25.6 ppg (Nicolas Batum)
Krstic Factor: 2.0 ppg

Offensive Focus: Jumpshooting
Game Focus: Offense
Athleticism Factor: Equal

Matchupability Rating: 35.1

In my crude rating system, the Blazers come up as a pretty tough matchup. I think a lot of that has to do with the fact I weighted a lot of it on margin of victory, team winning percentage and how well Westbrook plays. And honestly, against a full strength Portland squad, I think they are a bad matchup. They have a ton of ability inside, they have defenders that can check KD and they have shooters. But in their current incarnation of bandages and broken pieces, OKC matches up favorably. Obviously I don’t think the Thunder are going to climb to the top seed and have a chance to play them, but if it were to happen, I’d like OKC’s chances.

Chance of advancing: 70 percent

Obviously, a lot of this can change. The Thunder plays Utah twice more, Portland twice more, the Lakers once, Dallas once, Phoenix once, Denver once and San Antonio once. So our view of who Oklahoma City matches up well with could certainly change from now until the end of the season. But as it stands today, I like Utah and Phoenix as the best first round matchups for the Thunder, with Dallas a close third (other than Portland, obviously). The Thunder wants a slower, more grind it out team and Utah is exactly that. Phoenix doesn’t play great defense, which is something the Thunder can capitalize on.

It will be tough because this is such a young team and you never know how they’ll perform in the postseason. But if we’re talking strictly matchups, the Thunder’s got to draw favorably. And with 19 games to go, there’s still a ton of time to wiggle up or possibly even down.