So… Billy Donovan?

AP Photo

The momentum is building towards Billy Donovan being named the next Thunder coach in the very near future.

From the very beginning, Donovan appeared to be the frontrunner for the job, alongside a few other select candidates. But with Donovan’s connection already in place with the organization and so much of his mentality aligning with the Thunder’s core values, he was Presti’s pick from the start.

Somewhat surprisingly, though, the news of this has been met with some seriously tepid reaction from the Thunder fanbase. Many are skeptical about the risk, or doubting Donovan’s credentials as a coach, or just flat out think Presti is blowing this search. Here are the main talking points I’m seeing:

Why aren’t the Thunder hiring a proven coach?

First, Donovan’s not proven? I suppose this means proven NBA coach, and if that’s the case, who might that have been? The top ones are under contract with other teams, and the ones that aren’t, aren’t for a reason.

You want Mark Jackson? Mike Malone? How exactly are those hires better than someone like Donovan? Simply because they spent a couple seasons coaching in the NBA? Or the assistants — Alvin Gentry, Ettore Messina, etc. What do you really know about them? If you think Donovan is a gamble, Messina would be taking your life savings to Vegas to put on red. Gentry has been a head coach off and on, most recently with the Suns from 2009-2013. His best season: 54 wins, and a Western Conference finals appearance. Career record: 335-370. That’s proven?

Donovan’s resume is fairly outrageous. Of course, yes, that comes with the disclaimer it was in college, and that doesn’t necessarily translate to the NBA. There are past disasters like Donovan’s mentor Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Tim Floyd, Mike Montgomery and Lon Kruger, but it’s not really fair to stereotype Donovan based off of those. Because Pitino didn’t take over a roster featuring two of the game’s top five players either.

Also: How many NBA assistant coaches haven’t translated? The answer is a lot.

Rookie coaches historically don’t win championships, but Steve Kerr is doing his best to run through that wall. Rewind to last spring when the Warriors were searching for Mark Jackson’s replacement. Every Warriors fan the world seemed crestfallen they didn’t hire Stan Van Gundy. How are they feeling about that right now?

Again, everyone develops their pet favorites during these searches. It’s natural to decide you think this guy or that guy is the perfect fit. But you don’t know. You haven’t taken a half dozen trips to Gainesville to scout Donovan. You haven’t sat in long meetings with him hearing his ideas to transform the roster. You don’t really know anything other than what you’ve seen his team’s produce, which, in reality, should be plenty to convince you he’s a really good coach.

This is a huge season and Donovan has no experience.

This is a comment I saw on Reddit: “We are at ground zero of KD might leave central, this isn’t the year to take any risks at all on the coach. Get a guaranteed home run.” This is a common perspective. But do tell, who is this guaranteed home run you speak of? Because you should really tell Sam Presti if you know.

Yes, it’s a massively important season ahead. But you also can’t box yourself into the prism that next season is the only thing that matters. This shouldn’t be a one-year hire, a plan to bring in a guy to deliver a title or bust. There are a lot of risks involved in that, and Thunder fans should have a pretty good idea that sometimes, bad luck happens.

This needs to be a long-term hire, one that Kevin Durant is going to like and feel good about. Obviously winning a title in the first crack at it is pretty damn helpful, but this upcoming season needs to be more about demonstrating a strong vision for the future of the organization, and convincing Durant this is the place he needs to remain.

Billy Donovan can only win with great players.

I thought this was just a dumb thing one person said to me on Twitter, but it turns out I heard it a lot today. First: All coaches can only win with great players. There’s a pretty clear parallel there. The better the roster, the better the coach appears to be.

Second: Lucky for Donovan, he’s going to have some great players in Oklahoma City. So if your concern is that he only wins with great players, well, then I have some good news for you.

He’s just Scott Brooks all over again.

Where does this come from?

In college basketball, Donovan has a strong tactical reputation, a guy that could scheme opponents on both ends of the floor. His Florida defenses have always been terrifying, using high pressure to create turnovers and transition chances. Some of his teams shoot too many 3s, but he’s also coaching college players that have to play within a lot more structure than in the NBA. I don’t where this idea that Donovan can’t coach is coming from, but he’s consistently been of the best and brightest basketball minds in the country the last 15 years.

One big area of difference: Brooks always resisted lineup data and advanced metrics to help aid decisions. Donovan has been one of the most forward-thinkers in college basketball in using advanced stats. The Thunder are a very data driven front office. That was always a disconnect with Brooks, and something Donovan will likely embrace.

As I outlined here, Brooks certainly related well to players and got them to play hard and with purpose, but accountability had become a significant issue. The book on Donovan is he builds strong relationships to players while maintaining accountability. He’s the kind of coach that a player likes and appreciates, but also respects his authority. Brooks struggled with balancing between friend and coach, often letting some players — cough, Russell Westbrook, cough — do his own thing too often.

No, Donovan isn’t necessarily known as a master tactician, but Brad Stevens wasn’t either at Butler. Because you can’t really run high level style offense in college. You have to play to your players strengths, and that’s something Donovan does especially well.

Donovan is not just a recruiter and motivator. Those two things are quite necessary when it comes to being successful in the college game, but those two Florida teams that won national titles weren’t really littered with sure-thing McDonald’s All-Americans. He’s produced a bunch of NBA players, but those teams also aren’t fielding rosters with the same kind of talent like Kentucky, Duke or Kansas.

But Florida sucked this season.

Yep, they went 16-17. Only the second time ever Donovan missed the tournament. The team had high expectations and they didn’t do well in a meh SEC.

It happens. Sometimes your recruiting class doesn’t pan out. Sometimes you lose a lot of close games because college players don’t make good plays. I wouldn’t read too much into one college season determining whether or not Donovan can coach.

Why not wait for Tom Thibodeau?

The simple answer: Tom Thibodeau is not an organizational fit. Not even close. The Thunder are big on franchise synergy, and Thibodeau is potentially going to be out in Chicago because he doesn’t get along with management. You really think Presti is hiring that guy?

There’s also the fact that in what’s, again, such an important season, risking that Thibodeau will mesh with Durant and Westbrook is a significant gamble. Thibodeau is a taskmaster, and while the Thunder need some of that, they also can’t afford a complete implosion. Again, considering Donovan’s track record in that regard is strong, he’s more of a natural fit to try and get Westbrook and Durant to buy in.

The other thing: Why is Thibodeau such a sure thing? I think too many fans have been shortsighted about what happened this past season with regard to OKC’s defense. The Thunder are a good defensive team. They have been the last five seasons, steadily improving. The last two months of this season they were abysmal, but not having Serge Ibaka or Kevin Durant was pretty directly related to that. As well as relying on some serious youth and inexperience for three weeks to anchor the defensive interior.

Defense is not really the main issue here. Donovan has a good reputation for that anyway, but for this team, it’s about going to next levels, particularly offensively. About maximizing the roster, about making things easier for Durant and Westbrook, about taking a strong offensive team and turning it into a freaking juggernaut.

What I think is critical for Donovan is to fill out his staff well, much like Kerr did with the Warriors. Kerr pulled Gentry away from Doc Rivers and the Clippers, and Ron Adams from the Celtics. There are some very high level assistants out there and this is a chance for Donovan, who will have big name recognition and a very high profile job, to round out his staff with some good thinkers.

What the Thunder desperately needed here, was to be refreshed. Yes, I thought Brooks has earned the right to get the job done himself, but the more this has played out, and the more I’ve heard from those tied closely to the situation, this could be exactly the kind of team stimulation Presti is talking about. The players were ready for a change; and they’re excited about the prospect of someone bringing new ideas, particularly if it’s Billy Donovan.