Steven Adams out three weeks: Five big questions

NBAE/Getty Images

Steven Adams is out three weeks with a broken right hand. Just another injury to throw on the pile of an already comically unlucky season. With the All-Star break mixed in, the Thunder have caught a little bit of mercy in that if Adams returns on March 2, he’ll have only missed nine games.

Still, nine critical games in a season where every single one of them is going to count. How does this affect the Thunder going forward?

Five big questions:

1. Who starts?

The natural inclination — known as “the Scott Brooks scenario” — is to just insert Kendrick Perkins back into his place among the starting five. The one game Adams was a late scratch due to a migraine headache, Perk started and played 27 minutes.

In 32 minutes this season, the Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka and Perk has an offensive rating of 105.4 and a defensive rating of 98.3, for a net of +7.1. Not bad, but the sample size is way small and there are big drawbacks to going that direction, specifically in that you have two offensive negatives starting which could revert OKC back to old issues.

There are three other options:

1) Nick Collison. Ibaka and Collison don’t too play much together (they’ve played 153 minutes together this season and 364 together last season), but they are successful (+4.9 per 100 this season, +16.9 last season). Moving Collison off the bench takes away a bit of the second unit lineup versatility, mostly because Collison is a more natural backup for Ibaka than Adams. It’s a decent move in that Collison is more of an offensive plus than Perk, and can still equip the lineup with similar defense and screening. Collison isn’t as good a rebounder as Perk is and sometimes has trouble against superior size.

2) Mitch McGary. After his breakout performance against the Clippers, it’s easy to want this. But before yesterday, you wouldn’t have dreamed of even suggesting it. McGary’s talent is obvious and his potential exciting. He can pass, he can move, he can run, he can catch, he can rebound and he can score. His activity and energy are contagious and he adds new dimensions to the offense with his unique skill set either in the high post or in the pick-and-roll.

The issue here is pretty straightforward, though: Start McGary after he’s appeared in a total of three games and you might as well trade Perk tomorrow, because that’s not going to go over well in the locker room. I’m not saying it would be the wrong thing, but just know that decision would be highly controversial within the team. Especially considering McGary’s injury history and conditioning issues.

3) Go small. Here’s the bold, probably unlikely, move that I’m actually in favor of. Start Durant at the 4 with Ibaka at center, Anthony Morrow (or Dion Waiters) at shooting guard and Andre Roberson at small forward. Roberson has the length and versatility to guard that position. And while that’s adding heavy wear and tear to Durant playing him at power forward from tipoff, the Thunder are immediately putting opponents on the backfoot. Rebounding could suffer, and against sizeable teams it might backfire, but that’s why you have a deep bench with other options.

2. How does this impact the trade deadline?

The trade deadline is Feb. 19. Meaning Adams will be right in the middle of his rehab then.

Perk has been in trade conversations already, with the primary target being Brook Lopez, a fellow big man. Without Adams, it both opens the door for more trade talk, and simultaneously slams it shut. Because unless a deal is done for Lopez (or another corresponding big), the Thunder need Perk. Against the size in the West — particularly Memphis, the Clippers, Portland, San Antonio — the Thunder can’t get away without having a big body to pair with Ibaka.

While McGary was a revelation on Sunday, you can’t assume he’s ready to produce 25-30 minutes a night, especially with his limited experience. The Thunder have always anticipated McGary would be in the rotation so I don’t think they’re going to completely overhaul plans based off Adams’ injury. They’re confident in what they have already, but Presti is going to be aggressive at the deadline. And while trading Perk could complicate two weeks, it would be limited time before Adams was back and with McGary potentially emerging, the Thunder could get through that.

3. More or less smallball?

So assuming Brooks doesn’t start small — which he won’t — does Adams’ injury mean the Thunder are likely to play small more, or will it be business as usual with Perk just filling in his minutes?

My guess is the Thunder play small more often. Like I said above, starting small would be an option, albeit an unlikely one. One of the Thunder’s more intriguing smallball lineups including Adams at the 5, and Perk isn’t going to provide that same kind of option. So it means more Ibaka at center, which is both good and bad.

4. Will this injury cost the Thunder games?

Adams is really good, and is quietly having a breakout-ish season. He’s had four double-doubles, and his defense has vastly improved. He’s a huge presence on the offensive glass and does a better-than-average job protecting the rim. Plus, he allows Ibaka to space out to the 3-point line as a stretch 4 as he handles primary roll duties and crashes the boards. Without Adams, Ibaka is less of a perimeter threat, which I don’t think is necessarily a good thing.

But at the same time, Adams is just a really solid role player. And you can replicate their production in the interim with your spare parts, mixing and matching to get by. You can’t do that with breadwinning stars. Not having Adams will force the Thunder to get creative and it will mean a few players will need to play well in his absence. But I don’t think this is a debilitating setback that is going to put the Thunder in any more of a precarious position than they already are in.

5. Good thing Mitch McGary isn’t terrible though, right?

Yeah, that’s a really good thing. Because he might become an important piece for the Thunder over the next 31 games. And more specifically, the next nine.