The Forecast for May 26 - May 31: King Serge

AP Photo

And the narrative swings again, like a sweetened, golden chariot. What a performance from Serge Ibaka. What a colossal, massive showing.I was one who fell in the camp of “These losses are too bad, surely there must be more to these than just Ibaka being out.” I guess, at least so far, that’s very wrong. And it also sheds some light onto something that Ibaka has had to deal with since The Trade Heard ‘Round The World. Out of all the #longforms a and #thinkpieces that were born from that trade way back when, the story that has stuck to the wall the most is that the Thunder picked Serge over Harden. I don’t want to get into the truth or lack thereof of that, it’s exhausting, but through all the talk has been a lack of true appreciation for what Ibaka brings to the table.There was so much chatter about the playmaking the Thunder was losing, the world forgot to talk about the play stopping it was keeping.You’ve undoubtedly seen the super-cut of James Harden’s stellar defensive efforts this season. It got ran through its paces throughout the NBA blogosphere so I won’t link to it again here. Just know it’s several minutes of Harden playing with lackluster effort, losing his man entirely. I’m not here to dabble in hypotheticals because that’s an insane person’s job, but it’s fairly safe to say that Harden doesn’t guard like Ibaka guards. Not at all.Ibaka will not take over a game in an obvious way. He will not do what Harden did in Game 5 in the Riverwalk City in the 2012 series. But Ibaka is more grating than that. His is a wearing down, a chipping away, a slow assault on your psyche with regard to just how comfortable you should be playing offense on the same court that he’s playing defense on. He is one of the rare breeds who can remind you he’s there, with a great deal of authority, on both ends of the court.Since that trade, we’ve all had to deal with the constant reminder that someone who was important to the Thunder’s success was now gone. The shouts were so loud that for a bit it was difficult to remember to appreciate the players we still had. The importance of having Westbrook had been proven since the Beverley incident, but Serge’s consistency was, in a way, working against him. The people never got to see what life was like without him up till the first two games of this series.If you are an elite team in the Western conference right now, you have to have bigs that can be physical and can move. Think about the teams the Thunder have played this far. The Grizz, the Clips, the Spurs. You think the Thunder would be here at all had Serge not been playing? Think about all the times he met Blake and DeAndre at the rim. Think about all the times he bothered Z-Bo and Gasol. Those series took on different narratives, sometimes for good reason. With the Clips people focused on Sterling, Westbrook’s outplaying of Paul, and Scott Brooks’ disastrous offensive structure, or lack there of.

With the Grizzlies everyone focused on Durant’s difficulties with Allen and one newspaper’s silly headline. Lost in all this was the fact that if Ibaka is not playing and not playing well, the Thunder are, in every way, screwed. It is his activity, his constant movement and constant challenging of shots and drives and post ups, that is killer. With Ibaka, if at the beginning of the game you are a mountain, by the end of the game he’s turned you into a hill.

This is no new revelation, but it bears repeating: if you see something every day it is hard to appreciate it. When it leaves you start to realize how nice it was. Seems Ibaka is pretty important. Seems as if losing him might’ve been a real tragedy.Durant has long been considered a player perfect for Oklahoma City. He’d be perfect for any town on Earth, Mars, or elsewhere, but still. Ibaka, though, is also in the midst of a weird and happy marriage with Oklahoma City. You want inside the hearts of Oklahoma, play a game like Ibaka did on Sunday night. I had that weird proud feeling fans get even though I have nothing to do with any of this. It was so special to watch a guy play like that. There’s a lot of bogus talk throughout a basketball season about “sacrifice” and “giving up your body for the good of the team”. We saw that actually happen last night. What a privilege to watch. What a fun time. He’s always had to deal with being either the third or fourth fiddle. He’s never gotten his just due. Last night he finally got his. Last night he finally had his moment. That went on for too long. Let’s take a look at The Forecast.

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Game IV

Team: San Antonio Spurs (1st Seed in West)

Round: Western Conference Finals

Date: Tuesday, May 27, 2014 (Home)

Details: The emotional high will be over and either Serge will have recovered nicely or the leg will be bothering him a bit more. It will be most interesting to see if Scotty keeps with the lineup changes that worked so well for him in Game III. More Lamb and Jones and Reggie and less Thabo and Fisher seems like a recipe for success. The former three are just more athletic and greater threats to wreak havoc on both ends of the floor. Fisher can hit open jumpers when the gods decide they want to laugh at Twitter, but aside from that, in a series where every possession is crucial in ensuring San Antonio doesn’t find their flow, we don’t need him out there matadoring it up. Reggie played huge last game and maybe Lamb inspired some confidence in the staff to give him more minutes. I’m not ready to say he can’t have a major impact going forward in these playoffs.

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Game V

Team: San Antonio Spurs (1st Seed in West)

Round: Western Conference Finals

Date: Thursday, May 29, 2014 (Away)

Details: All these games are on TNT but you probably already knew that. I only say it for thoroughness’ sake. It was great hearing what Chuck said about Ibaka last night. That under the circumstances it’s one of the most impressive performances he’d ever seen, that’s a cool thing to hear, and helps give perspective to something that already felt monumental to all Thunder fans involved.

This one is back in Texas and their place will be rocking. I think it’s important to say that, even assuming Serge is able to go and play like that, or close to it, for the rest of the series, doesn’t then mean that we’ve officially unlocked the key and are going to win out. That’s hardly the case. Serge could play well the rest of the way and this series could still end with us with our head in our hands. It’s all a matter of us being able to continue to disrupt their offense from getting to that comfy, “Shook Ones, Pt. II” place. If they get into Mobb Deep mode again, though, it’s long nights and, probably, good nights for all us in the Sooner State.

***

Game VI

Team: San Antonio Spurs (1st Seed in West)

Round: Western Conference Finals

Date: Saturday, May 31, 2014 (Home)

Details: This one is an *if necessary. We could be playing for our lives, or playing to shut the door on them. Either way, The Peake will be at maximum volume, shaking the brick streets of downtown Oklahoma City. For this one, I’d like to put out a request to any people sitting near anyone who’s not wearing the shirt to PLEASE publicly shame them until they put it on. Your Polo doesn’t look that good on you that you can’t just put the blue or white shirt on. I will continue to be upset about this until I see complete and utter consistency in color from the home crowd. The only Waldo in the bunch that is able to stick out is Jimmy Goldstein. That guy can do whatever he wants.

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Acceptable Outcome: 2-1

To stay alive it has be to that. 1-2 and it’s farewell and I’ll see you at Grand Lake. They need to win Game IV. San Antonio is good at putting the boot on the neck and choking someone out in closeout games at home. A Game IV win puts the pressure on the Spurs and allows the Thunder to play with a looseness they haven’t been afforded yet this series. They need to win one in Texas, though, and I’d just as soon have it not wind up needing to be Game VII. Game V would be a huge one to take, but I don’t know. If Serge is able to be effective, this series always had the feel of one that would go seven. I want to think that the tide has turned, but the vibe I get is that we’re going to have plenty of time for the narrative to swing a few more times.