Thunder Draft Prep: Picking at 21

The NBA Draft is this Thursday, and the Thunder own the 21st pick of the first round. This is a deep draft, and there will be a guy at 21 who can come in and contribute day one for this Thunder team. That speaks to the quality of the available talent, but also to the fact that Oklahoma City had Semaj Christon, Kyle Singler, Norris Cole, and Josh Huestis on the squad last season.

The mid-first round is extremely muddy right now. Some have a player like Justin Jackson going in the lottery, and others having him slipping to 21. Not all the players covered below will be available for the Thunder, but each has consistently appeared in the 20s throughout the draft process. Today we will cover Justin Jackson, Jawun Evans, Semi Ojeleye, and Derrick White.

(A huge shout-out to Michele Berra and Nicolò Ciuppani at Chart Side for doing a massive amount of work for this series. You guys are the best. Also — for a fun way to watch the draft, check out the Down to Dunk Draft Challenge.)

Justin Jackson SF: North Carolina

OFFENSE

Plus:

Good spot up shooter, has shown flashes off of screens
Good footwork, changed his shooting form during his years at North Carolina
OK as a passer, good vision, makes quick decisions
Elite IQ, knows where to run and when to cut

Minus:

Shot selection is not great, forces the issue
Can’t really dribble, settles for midrange jumpers and floaters
Ineffective rim attacker, lacks strength and verticality

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above The Break

EFG: 66.7% / 41.9% / 36.2% / 67.5% / 52.5%

VOL: 23.7% / 7.24% / 21.4% / 10.1% / 37.5%

DEFENSE

Plus:

Tremendous wingspan and quickness, can guard smaller guards and wings
Might be better as a defender than as a shooter

Minus:

Thin frame, can’t guard anyone in the post

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Justin Jackson makes a lot of sense for the Thunder if he makes it to 21. He has length, athleticism, can shoot from three, and above all else, can be a role playing small forward. Oklahoma City is desperate for this type of player, and he can step in and play from day one.

After a rude awakening at the 2016 Draft Combine, Jackson went to work on his three point shot. He returned to North Carolina and shot 37% from deep (up from 29%) on 7 attempts per game (up from 3 per game). That’s a big time improvement. The Thunder need good team defenders (check 1 for Jackson) and someone that can knock down outside shots (check 2 for Jackson).

The only real questions about him are his strength and upside. SMU’s Semi Ojeleye has more than 40 pounds on him, and Jackson is an inch taller. He is a true wing and won’t be able to guard power forwards or power wings like Lebron James, Paul George, or Dion Waiter (just kidding… kind of). Jackson is a straight small forward, which works out for OKC because they have a real need there. In a league that prizes versatility, Jackson doesn’t possess much. The comparison that keeps popping up is Matt Barnes — a less crazy and less involved with Derek Fisher’s life version. In fact, Matt Barnes might be his floor.

There is not much risk with Jackson, especially at 21. He should be able to step in right away, hit the NBA three, and play team defense. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside due to his age, 22, but the Thunder need capable NBA players now. Ultimately, Justin Jackson is likely gone before the Thunder are on the clock, but if he is there it would be a mistake for Sam Presti to let him slip by.

Jawun Evans PG: Oklahoma State

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OFFENSE

Plus:

Can knock down open 3’s, solid mechanics on his few attempts
Comfortable shooting off the dribble, can create his own shot, has good elevation
Master of the pick and roll, turns the corner fast and hits open man
Crafty passer, creates angles, can use both hands
Excellent FT shooter (81.2%) on high volume (6.0 per Game), usually a good sign to project shooting efficiency

Minus:

Turnover prone, forces the issue, looses dribble, runs into defenders
Not overly explosive, struggles at the rim and against length
Undersized, how well his offensive skills will translate is a question mark, especially his passing
Unable to push opponents who guard him closely

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 56% / 29.7% / 36.9% / 60% / 56.7%

VOL: 40% / 13.3% / 27%/ 1.04% / 18.7%

DEFENSE

Plus:

Solid lateral quickness, good defensive stance, can slide and stay in front of quick guards
Long arms allow him to be effective in passing lanes
Uses quick hands and his body to bothers opponent’s dribble

Minus:

Limited by his size and frame, hard to project as an adequate defender in the NBA
Struggles to navigate screens
Struggles to contest and be effective in close out and post up situations

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

If you are a Thunder fan living in Oklahoma, you already know about Jawun Evans. He is a pick and roll point guard, can hit threes and create his own shot off the bounce. He was far and away the best player on Oklahoma State’s roster, so we didn’t get to see what he can do off the ball. The Cowboys were happy with that, because Evans ran the number one offense in the country. He’s smart, projects as a good shooter, can run an offense, but ultimately may not be the best fit for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder have had Evans in for workouts, so we know the team has interest in him. We also know the Thunder values defense, and while Evans is gritty, being under 6 feet tall really limits your effectiveness as an NBA defender. His size also presents concerns on the offensive end. He struggled making passes over length, and wasn’t a great finisher around the rim in college. Playing against NBA length and athleticism on a nightly basis will come with a learning curve for Evans.

Evans is not a great fit with Westbrook in a two point guard lineup, believe it or not. Neither are great defenders and Evans, much like Russ, likes to operate with the ball in his hands. Many are calling for Westbrook to try and run off the ball to diversify the Thunder offense. Would the MVP Russell Westbrook run off-ball for a rookie point guard? Seems like an easy answer.

On the other hand, the Thunder had some real trouble with Westbrook on the bench. The Thunder played rookie point guard Semaj Christon as Westbrook’s backup. He was touted as a defensive point guard, but ranked 75th out of 91 point guards in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus Minus. That’s behind the likes of J.J. Barea and Brandon Jennings… yikes. His Offensive Real Plus Minus ranked him 89th out of 91 point guards, and if you didn’t already know, the Thunder needs to upgrade the backup minutes. Selecting Evans is a clear way to do that.

Evans is a really good prospect. Offensively he gives you everything you would want out of a point guard — Great in the pick and roll, can create his own shot, pushes the ball in transition, and can hit threes. If the Thunder have some deep, dark, sick feeling that Westbrook won’t accept the supermax extension, Evans would be good insurance. If they believe Russ will stick around, look for the Thunder to pick another player that can soak up more than 13 minutes per game.

Semi Ojeleye SF/PF: Southern Methodist

OFFENSE

Plus:

Incredible physical specimen, huge frame, can play the 3 and the 4
Can drive+pass and move the ball from the post a bit
Has shown flashes that he can pass on a good shot to create a great one
Good spot-up shooter, compact release, has NBA range
Good first step, drives hard to the basket, doesn’t shy away from contact, finishes well
Versatile offensive player

Minus:

Poor creation skills as a ball handler, hardly uses on-ball screens
Passes are not always accurate
Straight line driver, not overly crafty with his dribble
Doesn’t move particularly well on the court, lots of standing without moving
Relies heavily on turnaround jumper in the post, struggles to pull up against length

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 60.7% / 40% / 40.5% / 63.2% / 63.8%

VOL: 36% / 4.64% / 19.5% / 8.82% / 31.1%

DEFENSE

Plus:

Good lateral mobility, can slide to contain smaller guards
Good defensive stance, stays low on his legs
Strong post defender, can bother bigger opponents with his physicality

Minus:

Can be late on rotations, sometimes loses sight of his man
Sometimes plays too conservatively, does he have another level of aggressiveness?
Didn’t guard a ton of pick and roll in college, his switchability is still a question mark

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Semi is built like a Mack Truck — 6’7″, 235 lbs with 5% body fat. He’s athletically and physically ready, and only about 6 months younger than Steven Adams, which means he better be ready. He brings a lot of optimism and question marks to the table.

Optimistic take number one: Semi can shoot. He shot 42% from three this past season on nearly 5 attempts per game. This is his most translatable skill to the NBA.
Optimistic take number two: Semi is physically ready for the NBA. As mentioned above, he is physically mature, and has the strength to play power forward at the next level. He uses his power to his advantage.
Optimistic take number three: He is a solid rebounder and a good leaper off two feet.

A few concerns:

Question mark number one: Semi might only be a power forward. He wasn’t put in a lot of pick and rolls at SMU on the defensive end, so it’s hard to tell how “switchy” he is. Doesn’t seem to move well enough to guard small forwards.
Question mark number two: If he is a power forward, does he play? The Thunder already have two young and developing power forwards in Domas Sabonis and Jerami Grant. Ojeleye also seems like a Grant clone in some respects. A Grant clone with 25 pounds of extra muscle.
Question mark number three: Basketball IQ. Semi is not a great passer, and can get lost on defense at times. He also doesn’t have a great feel for the game. He also won’t be able to create his own shot at the next level. These are all reasons why he is viewed as a Jerami Grant clone, yet he does possess the tools to defend and has shown a good shooting stroke.

Overall, Ojeleye is a solid pick at 21. He will provide some 3-and-D upside, but unlikely to be much more than that because of his lack of feel for the game.

Derrick White PG/SG: Colorado

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OFFENSE

Plus:

Good size and length for the position, tested well athletically at the combine
High IQ, moves well on the court, sees teammates, accurate passer, unselfish, screens for teammates
Quick step back jumper with range from the dribble, good floater
Doesn’t shy away from contact or give up on plays
Quick release in spot-up situations, attacks closeouts well, 59% Real points per shot
Good finisher, thrives in pick and roll going right, deceptive dribble

Minus:

Runs into defenders going to the rim at times
Even if his stroke his smooth, the ball starts a tad low, may be an issue against taller opponents
Not overly explosive, may struggle finishing against length, less efficient with off hand
You see what you get here, even if he’s a late bloomer, hard to see upside
Not quick enough off-screens yet

SHOOTING SPLITS

<5ft / 5-7Ft / Mid / Corner / Above TB

EFG: 69.5% / 36.7% / 42.5% / 50% / 59.8%

VOL: 35.1% / 7.46% / 21.6% / 5.22% / 30.6%

DEFENSE

Plus:

Engaged defender, gives effort and has good instincts
Always keeps an eye on the ball without losing his man
Slides well and stays in from of his man
His length helps a lot in closeouts, good timing

Minus:

Not always in defensive stance
Settles for switches early in the pick and roll (may be by design)
His frame may limit him when guarding bigger bodies
Average quick step, may have trouble in ISO against quicker guards

FIT WITH THE THUNDER

Derrick White seems like a natural fit with the Thunder. He can play backup point guard, and he has the size at 6’5” to play next to Westbrook. White shot 39% from three on 4 attempts per game at Colorado last season, and has shown the ability to create his own shot off the dribble and play off ball. He is a smart player that sets screens to get open. He may never be great at anything, but he is solid all around. He also has a knack for scoring at the rim. One of the big differences between he and Jawun Evans is White scores with high efficiency in the restricted area. Evans is likely to be a better “point guard”, but White’s skills seem to translate more to what the Thunder need with Russ as the leader.

One of the concerns with White is the leap he has made. He only played Division I basketball for a season. Before playing at Colorado, he played at Colorado-Colorado Springs and dominated. After redshirting and playing 3 years, he transferred to Colorado for his 5th year (also kind of a strange red flag). But he continued to dominate. His raw stats are impressive:

32.9 MPG, 18 PTS, 40% 3P, 80% FT, 4 REBS, 4 AST, 1.2 STL, 1.4 BLK, 2.5 TO

He thrived in a solid PAC 12, and earned himself a place on the All PAC 12 Team. It’s unlikely that he averages anything close to this in the NBA at any point, but he does project as a solid combo guard.

White’s age is another concern. He turns 23 on the second day of free agency, and doesn’t possess much upside. He has shown to be a solid defender, but he lacks the size or athleticism to be a stopper at the next level. He is also not an explosive athlete. Sam Presti doesn’t typically go for this type of player, but OKC is desperate for some help when Russ is off the court. If that same player can hit a spot up three and play team defense? It would be worth it for Presti to take a look outside of the raw freak athlete.

White should be available at 21. Some believe that would be a reach, but he fills a need and can play right away. The kind of upgrade White could provide would be well worth the reach and something the Thunder could not afford in free agency.