Thunder Fear Factor: Who is scary in the West?

At 31-8, the Thunder own the West’s best record by 4.5 games over San Antonio and lead the Northwest Division by 9.5. Not to count any chickens or anything, but the chances are high that Oklahoma City finishes the season as the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed.

There are still 27 games yet to be played and things can certainly change, but I think we can safely assume the Thunder will be in the 2012 playoffs, which means it’s not too early to start wondering about matchups. The Western playoff picture is still cloudy, but there’s a solid sense of who the eight participants will be. And the question is, of whom shall the Thunder fear? Here’s a breakdown.

(Of note: I consider this to be on a Fear Factor scale of Charlotte to Miami — one being the Bobcats and 10 being the Heat.)

HOUSTON ROCKETS
Current record: 21-19
Current seed: 9th
Player to fear: Kyle Lowry
OKC’s record against: 2-1

The Thunder are 2-0 against the Rockets this season when Houston plays without Kyle Lowry. And 0-1 when they have him. Granted, that game had an absolutely miserable first quarter effort and the Thunder missed their final eight shots, eventually losing by a point. The Rockets are sliding, but as an eight-seed, they could be mildly dangerous. Meaning I could see them winning a game. Fear Factor: 4

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Current record: 21-19
Current seed: 8th
Player to fear: Kevin Love
OKC’s record against: 1-0

The one game the Thunder played the Wolves came down to a photo finish, with Kendrick Perkins coming up with a big block on Michael Beasley. The Wolves have a little bit of a 2009 Thunder look to them in that they’re young, eager and have some serious talent. Going against Kevin Love in a seven-game series doesn’t sound like an easy task. OKC matches up pretty well with the Wolves, but any time you’re battling a player of Love’s caliber, it’s going to be a challenge. Fear Factor: 6

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Current record: 23-16
Current seed: 5th
Player to fear: Kobe Bryant
OKC’s record against: 1-0

The Lakers are a bit of a jumbled mess right now. There are trade rumors circling, Mike Brown may not be getting along with Kobe and the team lost back-to-back games in Detroit and Washington. But they still have No. 24 and still have Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. They’re 17-2 at home, so beating them in Staples would take a mighty effort. But still, it was obvious in the matchup in OKC that the Thunder are the superior team right now. Perk can defend Bynum, Harden matches well with Kobe (plus, there’s Thabo) and really unless Laker role players have big nights, the Thunder should be good. Fear Factor: 5

DENVER NUGGETS
Current record: 22-18
Current seed: 7th
Player to fear: Ty Lawson
OKC’s record against: 1-0

One thing’s for sure: If the Thunder drew the Nuggets, it would be a close, painful battle. It might end in four or five games, but each night would come down to two or three big possessions. George Karl is convinced his team ball premise can win and while it certainly has and will, it falls short in one area: When it has to beat Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. When defense tightens in the final five minutes of a close game, OKC can turn to not one, but two crunch-time scorers. The Nuggets haven’t really solved that yet and it’s a reason the Thunder have taken five of the last six from Denver. Still, knowing how little has separated the two teams is cause for concern. Fear Factor: 6

DALLAS MAVERICKS
Current record: 23-17
Current seed: 6th
Player to fear: Dirk
OKC’s record against: 3-1

Dirk, you guys. Dirk. After that, do you really need to make a case as to why you fear the Mavs? Thunder fans were one of a few that got a taste of what it’s like trying to beat Dirk and the Mavs four times in seven tries last season, and it wasn’t fun. This Dallas team is far more vulnerable though and OKC taking three of four was no fluke. The games were certainly close, but it’s clear the Thunder have an edge… right now. In a playoff series? I know I’d be worried. Fear Factor: 8

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Current record: 19-20
Current seed: 11th
Player to fear: LaMarcus Aldridge
OKC’s record against: 1-1

As of now, Portland has fallen from the Western playoff picture and are sliding rapidly toward the lottery. Still, as I tried to convince my friend Ben Golliver of Blazersedge of in Orlando, the Blazers are a team that terrify me greatly as a first round opponent. LaMarcus Aldridge consistently destroys the Thunder, Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batrum are prototype defenders for Durant and then they have Marcus Camby to protect the rim and tip out offensive rebounds. The Blazers aren’t good against most of the league right now, but in an opening round series against OKC, I’d worry. Fear Factor: 7

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Current record: 26-12
Current seed: 2nd
Player to fear: Tony Parker
OKC’s record against: 1-1

Each team has taken turns blowing the other out, both wins coming on home floors. But here’s a key: Manu Ginobili didn’t play in either of those games. Tony Parker torched the Thunder in San Antonio, but really, it was more the Spurs’ drive-and-kick, pick-and-roll action that hurt the Thunder. Basically a series against San Antonio would essentially come down to if the Spurs were on from deep four nights. Because if so, OKC could go down. Fear Factor: 8

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Current record: 23-15
Current seed: 3rd
Player to fear: Marc Gasol
OKC’s record against: 3-0

Everyone knows why the Grizzlies are scary. Because they’re big, have brown fur, have big teeth and are not morally opposed to tearing human flesh. Oh wait, I’m describing an actually grizzly. Or Marc Gasol. I’m not sure. Memphis has yet to really have an opportunity to play with their full complement of talent. The Thunder are 3-0 against them this season, but all three games have been fourth quarter battles. And that’s how a playoff series would be. OKC matches up better than most against Memphis inside, but it would likely come down to if Durant and Westbrook were good enough to carry the load for four games. Fear Factor: 7

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Current record: 22-15
Current seed: 4th
Player to fear: Chris Paul
OKC’s record against: 0-1

For a minute there, the Clips looked like a legit Western contender. And while this recent stretch has been tough, I don’t think they should be written off yet. They have issues, but in terms of matching OKC, I still see them as the greatest threat. Chris Paul consistently gets his teammates good shots, they have some 3-point marksmen, they have an inside threat in Blake Griffin, they have a paint protector in DeAndre Jordan and they can turn to Caron Butler for big baskets. I just don’t think the Thunder can defend the Clippers well, but in order to beat them, would have to outscore them. Fear Factor: 9