Thunder Talk with Bryan and Jon

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Bryan Gutierrez and I have tossed emails back and forth going over various things about the Thunder. We thought it might interest some folks to read what we’re thinking, so here we go.

BG: I keep meaning to email you but I forget. Do you remember Zach Lowe’s prediction piece? If so, what did you think about his ones relating to the Thunder?

JH: Yeah I think you mean this one?

BG: Yup, that’s the one.

JH: I agree with him on Durant taking a 1+1 deal. It makes all the sense. I really expect 2016-17 to be the “make or break” season for OKC, not this season as many think.

BG: I figured that was the proper line of thinking for Durant. Having next year be the determining factor certainly makes their end result this season and the results of the summer incredibly important. A first-round exit and not much in terms of adding on to the roster could certainly piss him off.

JH: As the season wears on I also think the Thunder will have to make another deal and shore up some areas of concern. OKC has the parts to make a good deal or two. I don’t think Cam Payne can be had, but lots of other pieces could be moved in the right deal.

Here’s part of the hangup, I think: the Thunder typically target players in the age 25 to 28 sweet spot when they trade (Nazr Mohammed being a notable exception that comes to mind). They also like to get players that are still on their rookie scale deals so they can have a better chance of hanging onto them long-term. So I look at a guy like P.J. Tucker and think, “that guy could fit”, but he’s 30 and only under contract through next season (and it’s non-guaranteed). If the Thunder doesn’t see him as a 4 or 5 season acquisition, would they trade for him? Even if the cost was relatively inexpensive?

So instead, they do the salvage operation thing like they’ve done with Kanter and Waiters. It’s not a terrible strategy but I think the team is at the point now where it can take some risks on short-timers. Go get a solid veteran like Tucker or Randy Foye or Courtney Lee. But that’s rarely been the strategy before.

BG: What makes Payne unobtainable for other teams?

JH: I get the impression that the team really likes him as a player and as a person. I think they see him as a Reggie Jackson-type down the road, except much more likable. I wouldn’t say he’s completely unobtainable but I don’t think they’re in any hurry to give him up.

BG: Do you think they look for those guys on rookie scale deals so they can hold on to them because they buy into the small market narrative, even with KD and Westbrook on the roster? It sounds great in theory to search for those younger guys, but just go for talent and figure it out as you go, in my opinion. If they’re younger, they might not be playoff-tested and those growing pains could cost you a valuable game.

JH: For Sam Presti, I don’t think it’s a narrative; it’s a reality. Two notable examples that come to mind are when the Thunder pursued Shane Battier and he chose Miami, and when they pursued Pau Gasol and he chose Chicago. Perhaps there are other examples that have happened and word never got out.

BG: To me, it doesn’t necessarily seem like a risk to go for a solid veteran like the guys you mentioned. They’re known quantities and the issue is whether or not they can mesh within your system. You know they can play. The untapped potential angle is moot. It’s just about fit. Sounds like they just want to be opportunistic and strike big for the long term, which kind of missing the point that now is the time to cash in. Seems like they should be more aggressive and go for a “win now” type move. Not a blockbuster, but get a guy that makes you say “yeah, he’s perfect for the bench and really adds value.”

JH: You described OKC’s model pretty well there: be opportunistic and think long-term. It served them well when the team was developing and they snagged Thabo and Perk. But Presti has described the here and now as a “different phase” so perhaps he will be more willing to think outside of his box. Then again, every time Andre Roberson is introduced as the starting shooting guard and Billy Donovan says there are no plans to make changes to the starting lineup, I have my doubts…

To be fair, they did go out and get Derek Fisher (and kept him around too long) and Caron Butler (largely a bust) in the past for short-term fixes. They also didn’t have to give up an asset to get those guys. But the more I see of this team, the more I think that yes, they can and should try something new.

BG: Why do you think those two situations you mentioned didn’t pan out? Were they strapped for money when it came to Gasol?

JH: I’m not 100 percent certain, but I THINK the Thunder offered Battier more than Miami did (because Miami was limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception which started at around $3M). I remember Battier said something about wanting to close games and wasn’t sure if he would get that opportunity in OKC.

As for Gasol, the only tool OKC had to sign Gasol outright was the full MLE, which started at ~$5.3M, if memory serves. He chose Chicago because of the lifestyle (more culture and stuff) and, of course, Chicago was able to offer more money because they dropped under the salary cap. The Thunder couldn’t offer Pau what he was deserving of unless the Lakers cooperated in a sign-and-trade, and they reportedly had no interest in helping out a Western Conference foe.

BG: That’s promising that Presti has described this period as a different phase. That sounds like that creates some wiggle room to adapt and change their philosophy. Doesn’t mean that will happen, but you’ve got to at least acknowledge and say it. Who would you start at the 2?

JH: I like ‘Dre. He’s good-to-really-good defensively but I don’t have a lot of hope about his offensive game coming to life. I personally feel he should be a situational rotation player, kind of like how Collison has been used. Some games he may get a DNP, some games he may be needed as a fire extinguisher off the bench. He’s by no means killing the team by playing (but KD, Russ and Serge make a lot of stats look good) but I just feel like he’s an inefficiency that can be improved upon. I’d personally rather see Waiters starting and then package some guys to get some offense off the bench. Doubt that will happen, but we shall see.

BG: Something Dallas did during their title run was use DeShawn Stevenson as a guy who set the tempo defensively. He only averaged 16 minutes per game but he started 54 games. They experimented with other guys playing, but the leaders of the team suggested that Stevenson needed to set the tone in terms of the defensive disposition. I doubt a younger guy like Roberson could handle that, but maybe that’s something to look at if his offensive skill set isn’t going to improve.

JH: Yeah and Stevenson also attempted 3.5 threes per game and connected on 37.8 percent of them during that championship season. When Thabo was here, the Thunder was at their most lethal when he connected on 40+ percent of his shots from long distance. Bruce Bowen, who I kind of think the Thunder are trying to duplicate, was a career 39% shooter from deep.

Roberson isn’t that kind of threat. He’s improving but teams will continue to play the odds that he’ll miss and let him have his attempts. He’s doing some other nice things offensively but in my humble opinion, not enough to warrant the amount of time he’s getting.

BG: As time has passed, our initial discussion mentioned how we both saw little to nothing of value in DJ as the backup point guard. You mentioned the potential of the Thunder wanting to take things slow with Payne based on his position, which makes a lot of sense. It appears Donovan is ready to pull the trigger and move Payne ahead of Augustin in the rotation. The results were definitely intriguing against the Bucks.

It sounds like Payne’s got a good head on his shoulders. His teammates were very supportive of him after his first run as the backup to Westbrook. All of them said that he works hard in practice and that they felt good seeing his work pay off. That shows me that there’s a pretty healthy dose of chemistry on the roster. Chemistry is just one of those things you can’t quantify but it certainly matters. I’m really intrigued to see how Payne’s progression flows and if Donovan really is willing to ride through the expected rough patches.

Now that you’ve seen him on the floor, are you more intrigued, less, or holding steady?

JH: I was really down on DJ as well. Not really a floor general. More of a spot-up shooter. Not getting Kanter the touches he needed in that second unit. And he’s totally vacant on defense. Not saying Payne automagically fixes all of those issues, but I’m glad to see him get a chance.

I am much more intrigued about what he can bring now. I also can’t help but wonder what it would look like to have Russ and Payne together for stretches.