Thursday Bolts – 10.10.13
Berry Tramel: “Steven Adams impressed me the most, grading on the curve. I had no idea he was that smooth. I’m not trying to make him out to be Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, but Adams has some skills. Now, does he have the toughness and smarts to help inside? We’ll see. But clearly, Adams has a chance to play. He looks already to be ahead of ever how far Cole Aldrich got, and the best part is, what I said about Aldrich goes for Adams, too. It takes time for a big man to develop. Adams is starting from a much higher plateau.”
5-on-5 where Danny Chau of HP predicts trades: “The Thunder’s young assets will be traded for proven, championship-ready veterans by the trade deadline. OKC’s front office might have tried to play the long game by trading away the increasingly expensive James Harden for prospects, but Westbrook’s continuing knee woes have given the Thunder a glimpse of their mortality. If they’re going to win, it has to happen now.”
Doris Burke will be on NBA Countdown.
Tom Ziller of SB Nation on ShotScore: “The other issue is that when comparing the effectiveness of scorers, leaving out free throws (both the foul-drawing aspect and the free throw shooting aspect) you’re ignoring a fat chunk of the actual scoring happening in the NBA. About 30 percent of Kevin Durant’s points last season came at the free throw line. You can’t ignore that if you’re looking at overall scoring effectiveness … Durant eclipses LeBron, and Harden tops Curry. How? Well, for starters, Durant made 68 percent more free throws than LeBron. KD was No. 2 in the league in free throw attempts and hit them at a 91 percent clip. LeBron, though an effective foul-drawer, took far fewer FTAs than Durant (215 fewer) and hit them at a 75 percent clip. Part of what makes Durant just an incredibly effective scorer is his ability to draw fouls at a high rate and convert them at such a high rate. ShotScore, it seems, ignores that.”
The Rockets aren’t done tinkering their roster.
Henry Abbott of TrueHoop on new basketball analysis: “3s help a ton. The research started as a curio from John Hollinger that just attempting lots of 3s predicted wins. Now it’s coming from any number of clever analyses. Shoot more 3s, win more. This theory has even passed a test in the field: The Rockets coached their team that way, and their offense got better. If you’re not convinced yet, wait until SportVu optical tracking data makes it exceptionally clear over the next few years. It’s not that every possession should end in a 3. But it’s that NBA teams have been too careful with them, and that any coach who talks about “good shots” as distinct from 3s is wrong. Those are great shots.”
Darnell Mayberry: “Reggie Jackson appears ready for the moment: Even after his stellar playoff performance, Jackson entered this season facing questions of whether he could be a consistent performer. Two preseason games haven’t eliminated those questions, but there is considerably less angst about how Jackson will fill in. Or at least there should be. He was solid in the preseason opener and sensational in the second outing. In both games he was patient and under control, making smart decisions throughout. Jackson recorded 13 assists, had only two turnovers and looked confident and in command. He made just one of his seven 3-point attempts, which suggests he still hasn’t refined his shooting stroke. But he did reveal a sneaky good mid-range game and, of course, his usual knack for knifing his way into the paint and finishing at the rim or creating for others once there.”
Ziller’s Thunder preview: “We all understand what Perkins as a teammate means to the Thunder. But because of advanced metrics, we also know what Perkins means as a player, and it’s not good. If Brooks can’t recognize that or fails to change how he uses the team’s frontcourt, the calls for a new coach will continue to increase in volume. That in itself is a problem, a distraction. Maybe it’s good that the likely targets of ire in OKC will be non-players, though. It could keep the heat off of the guys on the court. At the very least, Westbrook should get less criticism now that we’ve seen how much worse the club is without him. But I’m afraid that’s little comfort for Presti and Brooks if the Thunder don’t win it all this year.”
