Thursday Bolts – 10.3.13
Zach Lowe of Grantland: “It’s easy to say that was last year, and this is this year. Westbrook will be back before Christmas. Jeremy Lamb is ready for real minutes, and should eventually turn into a useful shooter. Jackson had cracked 20 minutes in a game just 13 times in the regular season before doing so in all but one of Oklahoma City’s playoff games, and suddenly found himself a primary scoring option under enormous pressure. He didn’t always respond well, particularly down the stretch of two series-turning games against Memphis, but he shot a whopping 55 percent out of the pick-and-roll for the season — one of the very best marks in the league, per Synergy Sports. He was turnover-prone on those plays, as the Thunder are in general, and he has a long way to go as a distributor and reliable spot-up guy. But he’s explosive and crafty in the lane, and he has had months now to prepare for a larger role this season. Those are all reasons for blind optimism. But that’s the wrong reaction here, and it was wrong before Westbrook’s injury. This team cannot go into the playoffs with the same style of play, and same rotation choices, and expect to win four rounds. It needs to craft something like a continuous offensive system, rather than a handful of scripted plays, and that falls mostly on Brooks and the coaching staff. A simple offense was healthy for these guys when they were young, inexperienced, and learning on the fly. And it worked damn well in the macro picture. That’s how good Durant and Westbrook are. But in the micro picture of the postseason, when there is very little room for inefficiency, the Thunder needed to be better.”
Tom Ziller of SB Nation: “But here’s the thing with Ibaka: he has a whole lot of efficiency to lose before he’s deemed ineffective. Serge’s True Shooting percentage last season was .612, which means he’s good for 1.24 points per shooting possession. League average is about 1.06. Over the course of a game and a season, that’s a big difference. But Westbrook was not nearly so efficient — he was about league average in that category. So any extra shots that Ibaka soaks up in his absence don’t need to be Ibaka Efficient, they just need to be Westbrook Efficient. And in fact, given that Oklahoma City finished No. 1 in offense last season and could probably survive a slip down the top-10 in that category because the team’s defense is also spectacular and because Westbrook will return early enough in the season, Ibaka just needs to be not totally disastrous in those extra possessions.”
Lang Whitaker of NBA.com on MVP challengers: “To me the player right behind Bron is Kevin Durant. He hasn’t averaged fewer than 27.7 points per game over the last four seasons, and last season he finished with that ridiculous and historic 40-50-90 percentage line. With Westbrook out at least for the beginning of this season, Durant has a chance to carry the Thunder early and remind everyone that he’s the best scorer in the NBA. The other guy I’d think of is Derrick Rose, which may be wishful thinking considering he hasn’t played in an NBA game in over a year. But Rose was the last player other than LeBron to win an MVP, and since he can be such a dominant part of what the Bulls do, if Rose is healthy, I don’t see how he can be overlooked.”
Dwyane Wade: “When Westbrook had his injury, they kind of saved his meniscus. Mine was taken out when I was young.”
Handsome Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com is taking the field over the Heat.
Kevin Pelton of ESPN Insider: “The good news is that in contrast to last year’s postseason, Oklahoma City will have a full training camp to prepare for playing without Westbrook. Backup Reggie Jackson gained valuable starting experience in the playoffs and should now be confident stepping back into the role after averaging 15.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per 36 minutes in the postseason. Per NBA.com/Stats, Jackson played just 19 minutes with the remaining four Thunder starters in the 2012-13 regular season, so the unit had to develop chemistry on the fly. That won’t be the case this time around. The counterpoint is that improved chemistry can’t entirely compensate for the lack of scoring depth among Oklahoma City’s starting group minus Westbrook. His presence helps make up for the fact that center Kendrick Perkins and guard Thabo Sefolosha barely combine to use plays more frequently than one average player (21.1 percent combined usage as compared to the individual league average of 20.0 percent). Westbrook, who finished a team-high 33.0 percent of plays with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover, was responsible for creating offense for these players. Jackson (18.7 percent usage rate) isn’t the same kind of creator.”
Kurt Helin of PBT: “If Westbrook was to play the first 15 games of the Thunder season, they likely go 12-3 or 11-4. Without him, that could be more like 9-6 or a little worse. If you say “that’s just a couple of wins” remember that two wins separated the two seed from the five seed in the West last season — two wins was the difference between being at home against the struggling Lakers or on the road against the Clippers. In a West six deep with powerful teams, seeding is going to matter come the playoffs. Ultimately Oklahoma City will be just fine — this is still a team with two elite players at its core that can contend for years to come. But this injury is not a good thing when you think about the Thunder this season.”
John Klein of the Tulsa World: “Now, OKC becomes Durant and some role players. It was not great in the playoffs after Westbrook was injured last year in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs against Houston. The Thunder did survive to beat the Rockets in six games but were ousted in five games by Memphis in the second round. OKC never regained its rhythm after Westbrook was injured. It isn’t likely to be pretty early in this season without him, either. Durant is great. He is even greater when Westbrook is in there with him.”
Darnell Mayberry: “Reggie Jackson is expected to serve as the emergency starter in Westbrook’s absence, as he did in the Thunder’s final nine playoff games following Westbrook’s injury. Beyond that, though, the Thunder’s first month and a half has suddenly become one big mystery. Is Jackson, who as of Tuesday morning still was projected to be the team’s sixth man, now ready for a starring role? Can Kevin Durant effectively carry the load with defenses loaded up and locked in on him? How much does Derek Fisher, now 39, have left in the tank to offer as the presumable backup point guard? How good is Jeremy Lamb? Does Brooks have a backup plan? The Thunder’s early-season success hinges largely on how these questions are answered.”
