Two Man Game: Andre Roberson is shooting guard Option A

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By Josh Kopelman
Special to Daily Thunder

Since the dawn of time, or more accurately the start of the season Thunder fans have been clamoring for a change in the starting lineup at the 2-guard.

This is because Andre Roberson is the starting shooting guard and the shooting part is where he struggles when he plays basketball.

However, the way Roberson plays offense (along with his ability to defend at a high level) is part of the reason why he’s in the starting lineup.

Wait, what?

Even before a trade deadline deal brought four new players to OKC, there were calls for Dion Waiters to start in place of Andre Roberson. The trade gave the Thunder two more possible options at shooting guard in Kyle Singler and D.J. Augustin.

With Kevin Durant out, Singler is the de facto starting small forward and when Durant returns he’ll move to the bench.

However, Singler, along with Anthony Morrow, D.J. Augustin and Dion Waiters can all play and start at shooting guard if they need to. Are any of these guys better options to start than Andre Roberson?

Starting Augustin would mean there is no true point guard to backup Russell Westbrook so he’s not an option to start.

Anthony Morrow has not played a single minute when the Durant-Westbrook-Ibaka-Adams foursome has been on the floor so it’s hard to judge exactly how he’d do starting with those guys.

If Kanter continues as starting center over Adams, then there is even less a need for offense and Morrow isn’t exactly known as a defensive ace. So the seven-year vet is coming off the bench.

Ditto with Singler struggling on defense, but still he makes an intriguing candidate at shooting guard.

Take a look at the third-year player from Duke’s shot chart. He can definitely knock down the three:

But, he’s shooting 45.6 percent around the rim. Roberson is 61.2 percent! Singler could slide over and start at the 2 when Durant returns because of his shooting edge. But that option isn’t as appealing when you look at rebounding.

Per 100 possessions Roberson dominates the glass compared to the 3-point specialist averaging 10.8 boards to Singler’s 6.7.

See? He is a good rebounder. That led to two easy points for Russell Westbrook all because Roberson crashed the boards with the assist of a lucky bounce after the first miss.

So it’s back to the bench for Singler once the Slim Reaper returns.

And that brings us to the island of misfit Waiters.

Dion Waiters is usually the first guy off the bench so it’s common to hear, “Dion should start over Andre.” The best part is that people saying this are being serious.

Without looking into it, the theory makes sense. Waiters would help boost scoring and his defense isn’t that much worse than Roberson’s.

But, we’re going to look at how these two players play.

Waiters is far better at shooting than Andre Roberson. At least that’s the common thought.

The former Cav is shooting just 37.8/27.8/64.2 with 311 points on 333 field goal attempts since the early January trade brought him to OKC.

Yes, Mr. Shot Selection has 22 more field goals attempted than points scored.

And his defensive Real Plus-Minus this season is minus-0.92, which isn’t slightly worse than Roberson’s 3.77, it’s light years behind.

That 3.77 DRPM Roberson has posted this season is  second among shooting guards and 12th overall in the NBA this season.

And Yes, Roberson got burned on defense late in the victory over Toronto, Mr. I didn’t pay attention to Roberson shutting down the DeMar DeRozan in the third quarter.

Ok, but Waiters is better offensively, right?

Andre Roberson this season is 46.8/25/45.7 and has 194 points on 170 shots. That’s bad shooting from 3-point land and the free throw line, no doubt.

But, Roberson is shooting 46.8 percent from the field???

That’s the sixth best field goal percentage on the team! And the defensive specialist leads all Thunder guards in field goal percentage? How?

Oh. No one is guarding him. That makes shooting slightly easier.

And that’s the thing. Roberson is very good at not being guarded since “make sure Andre doesn’t shoot” isn’t in any team’s game plan. In both of those plays, the guy who can’t shoot makes opponents pay for ignoring him.

And that’s probably why he’s hitting 61.2 percent of his shots near the basket. For reference, that’s better than Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Of course Roberson isn’t a better shooter than those three, his Shooting percentage is only higher because defenses guard those other guys when they go to the basket.

What else does Roberson bring offensively?

Look at the shot chart. Almost no midrange jumpers, which are the least efficient shots in the basketball.

Roberson only attempts 3.1 field goals per game. When you ‘re bad at shooting, not firing up a shot unless you’re open is as good as it gets for your team.

He doesn’t take inefficient jumpers that efficient shooters such as Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook could be taking.

Waiters isn’t afraid to shoot with a defender in his face. Maybe he should be.

Notice who else is on the floor for the Thunder when Waiters decides to step back and shoot.

Thirty percent of the shots that Dion takes are two pointers from further than 16 feet out. He makes 38.4 percent of those. That’s about 7.7 points for every 10 shot attempts.

Roberson has only taken ONE shot from the same distance. ONE! The other 172 shots he has taken this season have been either within ten feet of the basket or behind the three-point line.

And that brings us to the answer of why Waiters doesn’t start over Roberson.

The healthy Thunder lineup of Adams-KD-Westbrook-Ibaka-Roberson is outscoring opponents by 15 points per 100 possessions.

Sub in Waiters for Roberson and that lineup does a cliff dive to 9.9 points behind opponents per 100 possessions.

That’s going from a 15-point lead to trailing by nearly 10 points.

Kanter is even more of an offensive threat than Adams, so with him in the starting lineup it’s even more reason to start the more efficient and passive shooter in Roberson.

Waiters is fine for a bench player, but he doesn’t fit with the starting lineup on offense since he takes so many inefficient shots.

Roberson plays better with the rest of Oklahoma City’s healthy starters at the 2-guard and he’s a better perimeter defender than anyone else OKC has, which is why the Thunder continue to start Roberson despite some fans groaning at the idea.

You can hear Josh Kopelman, known as the Latvian Missile, occasionally on the Sports Animal where he produces daily from noon-4 p.m. Follow him on Twitter here.