Westbrook likely out 4 to 6 weeks: Can the Thunder survive?

Russell Westbrook still remains without an official timetable as he and the team weigh surgery as an option to repair his broken right hand. Either way, it looks like he’ll be out at least 4 to 6 weeks, leaving the Thunder not only without their two cornerstone stars, but with only eight available bodies. There’s hope Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb might return soon, but regardless, the Thunder are in big, big trouble.

They’re looking at playing anywhere to their next 15 to 25 games without Westbrook and Durant, leaving them to rely on Serge Ibaka, Jackson and potentially the breakout of Perry Jones to carry them through. If they want to really have a chance at the top four in the West, they probably need to be around .500. But forget that: They just need to hang on for dear life and be within striking distance to be back in the playoff conversation by April.

Seriously. That’s a legitimate fear at this point. Consider: With Marc Gasol sidelined, the Grizzlies were 10-15 on Dec. 18. They finished 40-17 the rest of the way to lock up 50 wins and the No. 7 seed in the West. 40-17 is a winning percentage of 70.1. That’s really, really good. Now, with a healthy Durant and Westbrook over the last four seasons, the Thunder have won 71.0 percent of their games. Last season, they went 33-12 with Westbrook and Durant playing together (73.3 winning percentage).

So let’s say they return early to mid-December with the Thunder some 20 games in. According to projections, the Thunder are set to be pretty bad right now, but the schedule does open up reasonably kindly after these opening 10 days. Even on the conservative side, I think the Thunder could win something like eight games in this stretch. Worst case, they win four or five. If they go 8-12, they just need to finish 42-18 the rest of the way for 50 wins. That’s winning 70 percent of their games.

But there’s an important caveat to all of that: We have no idea how they’re going to play. Yes, they competed admirably against a very good Clippers team. Yes, they were in it against the Blazers on the road. But you can’t ignore the fact the Clippers played exceptionally bad as well, leaving the Thunder an opportunity to steal it. And you can’t rely upon Perry Jones to provide 32 points on 17 shots too much more often.

Getting Jackson back will stabilize a lot of this. Just having him to initiate and run offense will at least give the Thunder an offensive identity, someone to look to for either a shot or to create one for someone else. Lamb can do some of the same. And there’s also the fact the Thunder can play some inspired defense, something they did a lot of in the first two games. People can rag on Scott Brooks all they want, but he gets his guys to play hard and they have a very sound defensive structure in place.

If you want to think positively, imagine a Thunder that build confidence and win some games over the next month behind good performances from Perry Jones and Jeremy Lamb. All that hand-wringing about not bringing in help could be zipped up based on the Thunder solving their perceived depth issues with existing youth. That’s a big time if, though, and on the flip side, it may just expose how unequipped those guys are to be key contributors.

(Sidebar: It’s already happening, but good lord some people are completely consumed with the idea this was somehow entirely preventable had the Thunder spend wads of cash on free agents, or not traded James Harden. Here’s the hard truth with that mindset: Had the Thunder been entirely liberal with their finances and re-signed Harden or spent big and dipped deep into the tax, wall it would mean is that they could be facing a wasted season ahead while simultaneously having wasted future flexibility. If anything, these injuries just go further to validate Presti’s decisions. You can’t anticipate what’s going to happen. You can only plan to the best of your ability. And if he had overextended with a mind to cash in on this so-called championship window and gone for it, the Thunder would be left standing right now with their pants around their ankles.)

This is uncharted land for the Thunder, at least since the inaugural season. They’ve only played one game without Westbrook and Durant (hey, 1-0!) and it’s been a long time since each Thunder game carried this much uncertainty with it. I remember during that first season I didn’t often just wonder where the next win would come from, but where the next basket would come from. That’s kind of the same world we’re about to live in.

The Thunder can get through and maybe come out better for it in the long run. But with the shroud of 2016 hanging over everything, it’s hard not to be crippled with fear that one of the two shots the Thunder may ever have left is slipping away just two games into the season.